Crude Holds Above $103 as Hormuz Tensions Counter Diplomacy Hopes

Crude oil extended its October rally on Friday, with WTI settling at $103.04 after a tanker was hit by explosive devices near the Strait of Hormuz. The incident marked the latest supply-risk headline in a conflict now entering its eighth month, lifting the benchmark toward a 14 per cent monthly gain. Prices had already climbed through the $102.00 resistance earlier in the session, driven by reports that Houthi forces targeted facilities at Ras Tanura, Rabigh and Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia. The attacks underscored the fragility of Gulf exports even as US Vice President JD Vance reached out to Tehran in an effort to restart medical-supply deliveries and broader negotiations.

The diplomatic overture has yet to shift market sentiment. Iran confirmed receipt of a letter from Vance but said any agreement must satisfy the seven conditions it set out previously, most of which were part of a June memorandum of understanding. At the same time reports emerged that President Trump had been briefed on military strike options targeting Iranian infrastructure, with plans potentially moving forward after next week's midterm elections. That backdrop kept the forward curve in backwardation and volatility elevated, traders wary that any perceived progress on talks could unravel quickly.

What the calendar says

The economic schedule offers no oil-specific releases in the days immediately ahead, but macro events will shape dollar flows and risk appetite for commodities. The Bank of Japan announces its policy decision today, 30 October, with the outcome likely to move USD/JPY and broader currency sentiment. On 5 November at 11:00 UTC the Bank of England delivers its rate verdict and quarterly Monetary Policy Report, an event that historically swings cable and can ripple into risk assets if the guidance surprises. The main data point of the week arrives 6 November at 12:30 UTC, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes US nonfarm payrolls. A strong jobs print would bolster expectations for Federal Reserve hawkishness, lifting the dollar and potentially capping commodity gains; a miss would do the opposite. None of these releases directly governs supply or demand for crude, but they will determine the currency and sentiment backdrop against which oil trades.

Technical picture

The chart shows WTI on an hourly timeframe from 6 October through to the close on 30 October. The rally that began near $90.50 in early October has unfolded in a series of higher highs, punctuated by brief consolidations around $95, $98 and $101. The latest leg carried the contract through $102.00 and into a session high near $103.88, establishing that round number as the immediate resistance zone to watch. Support now sits in a band between $101 and $99, an area that has repeatedly attracted buyers during pullbacks over the past week. A confirmed break below $98.00 would signal that the geopolitical premium is fading, opening a quicker move toward $95 and potentially $93. Conversely, a daily close above $103.50 would argue for continuation toward the next targets at $106 and $110, levels last tested when sanctions and export disruptions were at their peak. Momentum remains constructive as long as the price holds above the rising trendline visible from mid-October, though the proximity to recent highs leaves little margin for disappointment on either the diplomatic or the supply front.