Energy · 12 November 2026
Crude Trades Near Ten-Week Low as Peace Hopes Offset Geopolitical Risk
WTI has dropped nearly 20% from its October peak as markets weigh potential de-escalation against persistent Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Ultimo Research
Crude held steady around $86 per barrel on Thursday following sharp losses earlier in the week, with the chart showing WTI spot trading in a range between $84 and $104 over the past three weeks. December WTI had settled at $104.12 on October 30, but the benchmark remains nearly 20% below its October peak as crude supply flows from the Middle East continue to recover. The selloff accelerated on hopes for de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict, though the US and Iran remain deadlocked in negotiations while avoiding further escalation; a senior Iranian security official stated that the country would not surrender "a single atom" of its enriched nuclear material, rejecting one of Washington's key conditions for peace talks, and Tehran has reiterated that the US must lift its sanctions and end the naval blockade before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened.
Saudi Arabia told OPEC that crude output surged by 26% in October, marking one of its strongest monthly production levels in recent years, while Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refineries representing roughly 30% of Russia's total oil-processing capacity since late October. On the demand side, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories increased by 9 million barrels last week, underscoring the market's shift from worries about supply to concerns about whether higher production can be absorbed.
What the calendar says
The Weekly Petroleum Status Report will be released on Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 12:00 PM and 2:00 PM eastern time due to the closure of the Federal government on Wednesday, November 11. That one-day delay shifts the weekly inventory numbers—crude stocks, distillates and gasoline—from their usual Wednesday slot to Thursday afternoon. Seven OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) met virtually on November 1 and decided to maintain September 2026 required production for December 2026, so no further production decisions from the group are scheduled until later in the month. Beyond that, no macro releases bearing directly on crude fundamentals appear on the near-term slate; the next major focus will be inventories and any headlines from Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.
Technical picture
The chart covers October 26 through November 12 and shows WTI spot in a sharp downtrend from $101.50 to a recent low near $84. The instrument broke through support at $95, $90 and $87 in quick succession before finding a floor around $84; that level marks the deepest retracement since early September. Resistance now stacks at $87.50, $90 and $92, with the $95 pivot zone capping any stronger bounce. Momentum indicators remain subdued: price has traded below a declining trendline throughout the visible period, and rallies have been shallow and short-lived. A move back above $90 would signal that the worst of the selling has passed, while a break below $84 would open the door to a test of $80 and hand control to sellers. The structure suggests a market caught between easing geopolitical risk premium and stubborn supply constraints that still leave crude vulnerable to headline-driven swings in either direction.
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