Crude Under Pressure as Saudi Supply Surges and US Stocks Build

WTI crude traded near $87.50 per barrel on the hourly chart through mid-November, marking a sharp retreat from late-October peaks and leaving the benchmark on course for its second consecutive weekly decline. Crude oil rose toward $87 per barrel on Thursday, recouping some losses from earlier in the week as the US and Iran remain deadlocked in negotiations, though the broader trend remained under pressure. Brent is set for a 2.4% drop this week, after plunging 16% the previous week, while WTI is set for a 2.5% decline, after dropping 13% previously.

The two-week slide reflects a fundamental shift in supply dynamics. Saudi Arabia reported a 26% increase in oil production in October, bringing output to one of its highest monthly levels in years, while Iraq also raised production to a wartime record. That surge came even as the Strait of Hormuz remained partially disrupted, with alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea helping to keep exports flowing. EIA data showed US crude inventories rose by 4.657 million barrels in the week ended November 6, the largest increase since August and a reversal of five consecutive weekly declines, catching traders off guard and reinforcing the picture of easing tightness.

Political signals also weighed on sentiment. President Trump indicated the US would maintain its blockade on Iranian oil shipments rather than pursue a negotiated end to the conflict, reducing expectations of a near-term military escalation that could threaten additional barrels. Yet supply risks have not disappeared. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they had attacked a pumping station on the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Saudi Red Sea city of Yanbu, and an Aramco building in the capital Riyadh, while Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted refineries accounting for approximately 30% of Russia's total oil-processing capacity since late October.

What the calendar says

The weekly petroleum inventory cycle resumes on Wednesday, November 18 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern with the next EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, tracking whether the surprise 4.657 million-barrel build that shook markets last week proves to be an outlier or the start of a sustained trend toward looser balances. The same day, the American Petroleum Institute releases its private survey, typically a day ahead and often a market-moving preview of the official figures.

OPEC+ holds its next monthly production review on Saturday, November 29, a meeting that could determine whether the seven-nation group—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—will adjust December output after holding targets steady through this month. Any signal that the Kingdom intends to sustain its elevated October production into year-end would reinforce the supply recovery narrative.

Technical picture

The WTI chart captures a market in retreat. From a peak near $104 in late October, price dropped sharply through the first week of November, touching a ten-week low of $86 on November 10 before staging a modest two-day bounce. The chart shows consolidation around $87.50 through the middle of the month, with resistance forming at the $89–$91 zone where selling pressure re-emerged after early rallies. Support has held near $86, a level that corresponds to the August lows and marks the lower boundary of the recent range.

The steep descent from $104 to current levels represents a loss of roughly $16.50 per barrel in under two weeks, erasing much of the geopolitical premium built during the summer and early autumn. A failure to reclaim the $89 area would leave the market vulnerable to a test of the $84–$85 support band, while a sustained break above $90 would require either a meaningful escalation in Middle East disruptions or fresh evidence that the Saudi production surge was temporary.