Indices · 11 November 2026
DAX and S&P 500 Navigate Inflation Shock and Rate-Hike Fears
Hot CPI data fueled December rate-hike bets, sending the S&P 500 down **0.38%** Tuesday while the DAX touched a record before closing mixed.
Ultimo Research
The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,520.93 on Tuesday after October's Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI climbed 0.3%, both above economist forecasts. Both headline and core CPI rose more than expected in October, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike next month. Nvidia dragged down the three major averages, falling more than 5%, extending losses tied to an ongoing board investigation. Monday had delivered a sharp 2.3% rally for the S&P 500 after last week's worst decline in 19 months, but the inflation print erased the recovery.
Frankfurt's DAX 40 closed 0.3% higher at 26,390 on Tuesday after reaching a fresh intraday record of 26,634, though traders weighed hotter-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that another rate increase in December may be necessary, adding European rate-hike risk to the mix. Henkel surged over 4% as the company lifted its 2026 outlook after strong Q3 growth, while Infineon Technologies added 0.9% after reporting record Q4 and full-year 2026 results.
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2026 meeting, following a 25 basis point hike in September, but two policymakers voted for a 25 basis point rate hike. The Fed's latest dot plot indicated that a second rate hike is expected in 2026, and both headline and core US CPI rising more than expected in October reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike next month. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped, and volatility returned as markets repriced December odds.
What the calendar says
No economic reports are scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 11—Veterans Day—and while the bond market will be closed, this is not a stock market holiday. The remainder of the week remains light on tier-one releases. The next advance monthly retail sales report is scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, covering October 2026; that print will offer the first hard read on whether consumers entered the holiday season with momentum or caution. The next Federal Reserve (FOMC) interest-rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, with the statement released first, followed by the Chair's press conference. Between now and that decision, every inflation and labour-market release will shape the probability of a second 25 basis point move.
S&P 500: Technical view
The S&P 500 chart shows a volatile three-week range. The S&P 500 ended at 7,520.93 on Tuesday, inside a consolidation zone bounded by 7,730 resistance overhead and support near 7,320–7,350, tested during the sharp November 5 sell-off. Monday's intraday rally pushed the index briefly above 7,550, but Tuesday's inflation-driven reversal left price back in the middle of the range. Immediate resistance sits at 7,570–7,600; a sustained break above 7,650 would confirm a move toward the upper boundary. On the downside, a loss of 7,480–7,500 opens a test of 7,400, with the November lows near 7,320 as the next support if sellers return in force. Short-term momentum has turned neutral after Monday's spike, and volatility remains elevated as rate-hike expectations reshape the near-term path.
DAX 40: Technical picture
The DAX 40 chart displays a powerful two-week rally followed by Tuesday's late fade. The index reached a fresh intraday record of 26,634 on Tuesday before closing at 26,390, just below the prior session's high. The record peak now acts as immediate resistance; a decisive break and hold above 26,650 would target 26,800 and the psychologically important 27,000 level that analysts have flagged. Support has formed at 26,200–26,300, with the prior consolidation zone around 25,800–26,000 as the next line of defense if profit-taking intensifies. The hourly structure shows a series of higher lows from late October through early November, but Tuesday's reversal from the record warns that momentum may be stalling. A close back below 26,100 would signal a deeper pullback toward 25,900, while a hold above 26,300 keeps the door open for another run at fresh highs once volatility settles.
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