DAX Holds Record Territory as S&P500 Wrestles With Rate Fears

Frankfurt's DAX 40 rose over 1% to surpass 26,900 on Thursday, setting a fresh record high, while the S&P 500 has stumbled under the weight of technology-sector drama and rising rate expectations. US stock indices closed lower on Thursday as Nvidia's leadership crisis curbed risk appetite and an oil price rally lifted Treasury yields, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each edging 0.3% lower. Nvidia shares remain under heavy pressure, down 1.10% overnight, following Thursday's sudden resignation of CEO Jensen Huang amid allegations of extramarital affairs and potential ties to Chinese intelligence. The divergence between the two benchmarks reflects not only sector-specific shocks but also broader inflation dynamics: Treasury yield gains on hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) data have hammered US equities, while strong corporate earnings and falling oil prices supported sentiment in Germany.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.98%, a level that historically weighs on high-valuation growth stocks, and a stronger-than-expected consumer inflation reading, coupled with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, has reinforced expectations that interest rates could be raised more aggressively. As of November 12, interest rate futures implied an approximately 90.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December and an approximately 9.2% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. That shift came after Fed governor Christopher Waller said he believes a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting, warning that hiking only 25 basis points would put Fed credibility at risk. The DAX's resilience, meanwhile, owes much to German industrial champions: Siemens Energy closed 9.42% higher at about €132.92, reporting record annual results with revenue of €44.2 billion, net profit of €4.1 billion and an order backlog of €164 billion.

What the calendar says

The US Producer Price Index for October is due Friday, November 13 at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 GMT). Markets expect +0.4% month-on-month after +1.3% in September, with Core PPI seen up +0.3% (September +0.7%). October's annual PPI rate is forecast to register a 6.6% increase, compared with 6.3% in September, while the annual core PPI rate is projected at 5%, unchanged from its previous reading. The release arrives three days after the CPI report and will frame market expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 policy meeting. Headline PPI month-over-month is projected to cool to 0.4% due to falling energy prices, though sticky core pressures persist. A hotter-than-forecast print would lift December rate-hike odds still further and likely drive Treasury yields—and the dollar—higher, pressuring equities.

For the DAX, the European Central Bank's December meeting is the key event. All 71 economists polled November 10–12 expected the ECB to hike its deposit rate to 2.75% in December, which would be the third increase since the Middle East conflict began. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Tuesday there is a "strong case" for the ECB to raise rates in December, adding to a growing chorus of policymakers signaling further tightening. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has said a December rate hike by the ECB is likely, though more than a third—25 economists—expect another increase, most likely in the first quarter of 2027. German inflation data showed consumer price inflation eased to 2.8% in October from 3.3% in September, helped by a fuel discount in place since 1 October, yet inflation remains well above the ECB's 2% target.

DAX 40: technical picture

The chart shows that the index has climbed from around 25,400 in late October to a session peak near 26,994 on November 11 or 12, just shy of the all-time intraday high of 26,692.90, reached on 5 November 2026. The most recent candles show the index consolidating in the 26,600–26,800 zone, having retracted slightly from the record. The DAX closed at 26,662.77 points on Wednesday, 11 November 2026, up 1.20% from Tuesday's close of 26,347.45, making it the highest closing level in history. Key support now sits at 26,300–26,500, with resistance at the psychological 27,000 handle. A clean break above the record intraday high would open the door to further gains, though momentum indicators are extended after a rally of more than 1,000 points in three weeks.

S&P 500: technical picture

The S&P 500 chart show that after peaking near 7,730 in late October, the index sold off sharply to a low around 7,322 on November 5, then rallied back toward 7,650 by mid-week before fading again. The latest candles show price action around 7,595, just above the horizontal line marked at roughly 7,595. The S&P 500 closed at 7,592.4, down -0.35% on the day, but still holding a weekly gain of 3.25%. The chart reveals a choppy, range-bound pattern with no clear directional bias. Support is visible near 7,500–7,540, the lows of the recent consolidation; a break below would test the 7,320 trough. Resistance lies at 7,650–7,730, the October highs. Volume and volatility have picked up, consistent with the headline risk around Nvidia and Fed policy. Until Friday's PPI data lands, the index is likely to trade defensively within this range, with rate-sensitive and AI-related names under the microscope.