Forex · 7 September 2026
EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.16 Ahead of ECB Decision
Euro holds 1.1610 zone as traders await September 10 ECB meeting and digest stronger US employment data that boosted dollar near-term.
Ultimo Research
EUR/USD fell to 1.1610 on September 4, 2026, establishing a technical floor after stronger-than-expected US employment data boosted the dollar and reinforced expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, with US nonfarm payrolls increasing by 162,000 in August and prompting markets to price in a near 60% probability of a Fed rate hike this month. The hourly chart reveals a clean downtrend from the 1.17 highs in late August, with price now trading in a consolidation range between 1.1580 support and 1.1640 resistance. The horizontal line near 1.1610 marks the pivot where buyers and sellers have been battling since early September.
Attention now shifts to the European Central Bank's September 10 policy meeting, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike to 2.5% next week and assigning an almost 100% probability that the deposit rate will reach 3% by June 2027. Eurozone inflation for August came in at 3.3% year-on-year, its highest since September 2023 and above the ECB's 2% target, driven largely by energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. A break below 1.1580 would expose the 1.1550-1.1530 demand zone, while reclaiming 1.1650 could reopen upside toward 1.1700. With both central banks leaning hawkish, directional conviction may require next week's policy clarity.
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