Gold Corrects Ahead of Critical Fed Week; Dollar Consolidates

Gold has surrendered its late-August gains, trading around 4,392 after a decisive break below the 4,400 psychological floor. The hourly chart reveals a clear shift from buyers to sellers since peaking near 4,670, with resistance now layered at 4,463 and again at 4,500. Friday's robust payrolls report—162,000 jobs added versus expectations of 56,000—has shifted Fed pricing decisively: markets now assign a 60% probability to a September rate hike, up from roughly one-third before the data. That hawkish repricing is compressing precious metals, and the in-house Sell signal on XAU/USD aligns with the technical erosion. A sustained hold below 4,400 opens the door to a test of 4,360, and potentially 4,281, before buyers re-emerge.

The dollar index has stabilized around 99 after its own volatile week, caught between stronger employment data and dovish commentary from Fed Governor Waller. This week's calendar is punishing: CPI on September 11 will set the tone, followed by the FOMC decision on September 16. If inflation data surprises to the upside, dollar strength could accelerate and gold may struggle to reclaim 4,450. Conversely, any dovish pivot from the Fed—or softer CPI—would likely trigger short-covering rallies in precious metals and renewed pressure on the greenback. Cross-asset signals remain mixed (GBP/USD Buy, USD/JPY Strong Sell), reflecting the genuine uncertainty surrounding the next policy move. Traders will need to respect the 4,360–4,463 range until Wednesday's inflation print clarifies the path.