Gold Holds $4,000 as Fed Decision and PCE Data Loom This Week

Gold traded at $4,020 during Wednesday's Asian session after slipping 0.3% from the prior close, hovering just above the psychologically important $4,000 level that has provided support since late last week. The metal touched a three-month low of $3,987 on Tuesday before bargain hunters stepped in, creating a standoff between sellers defending recent highs and buyers attempting to stabilize the decline. The retreat from last week's peaks reflects two competing forces: a stronger dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and tentative relief in energy markets after oil prices pulled back from recent spikes. Iran-aligned Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery—a 550,000 barrel-per-day facility—briefly pushed crude above $100 per barrel, intensifying inflation concerns that typically pressure non-yielding assets when central banks respond with tighter policy.

The dollar index has held near 102.40 through the week, buoyed by Treasury yields climbing back above 5.0% as traders brace for the Fed's statement. That strength makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, capping rallies even as some technical indicators suggest the metal is approaching oversold territory. Middle East tensions remain a wild card; any escalation or fresh supply disruption in the Gulf could quickly reverse the recent energy-price correction and renew haven demand.

What the calendar says

The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision today, 2026-10-28 at 18:00 UTC, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow. Markets assign roughly 90% odds to rates holding steady in the 3.75%–4.00% range, but participants are pricing an 83% probability of a hike in December if inflation pressures persist. The statement and Warsh's remarks will be parsed for signals on how policymakers weigh elevated energy costs against recent tightening in financial conditions. A hawkish hold—leaving the door open for a year-end move—would likely weigh on gold, while any dovish surprise could spark a sharp rally.

Thursday 2026-10-29 at 12:30 UTC brings the September Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with consensus at 3.6% year-on-year versus 3.4% in August. A hotter-than-expected print would cement December-hike expectations and pressure gold further, while a softer number might ease rate fears and support the metal. The same release window includes advance third-quarter GDP, forecast at 3.2% against 2.2% in Q2, and initial jobless claims for the week ending 24 October, expected near 200,000. Strong growth and tight labor data would reinforce the Fed's inclination to keep policy restrictive.

Looking further out, the US jobs report is scheduled for 2026-11-06 at 12:30 UTC, providing the next major test of whether the economy can sustain elevated rates without cracking.

Technical picture

The chart shows gold at $4,046, trading below the 20-day exponential moving average at $4,122, which has capped rallies since the recent breakdown. The Relative Strength Index sits near 39, signaling weak momentum but not yet deep enough in oversold territory to guarantee an immediate bounce. On the weekly timeframe, the metal has breached the 90-day moving average and closed below $4,000 for the first time since July, establishing a clear bearish structure as the RSI holds below 50.

Immediate resistance lies at the 20-day EMA around $4,122; reclaiming that level on a daily close would be the first step toward easing downside pressure. A successful test there could open a path toward $4,160, near last week's spike highs. Support is layered: $4,000 has attracted buying interest repeatedly this week, while a failure there exposes $3,956 and then the summer's triple-bottom zone near $3,933. The slow stochastic has turned up from oversold levels, hinting that a technical bounce may be closer than a sustained break lower, but volume remains light as most participants await today's Fed outcome before committing large positions. Until the price closes back above the 20-day average, the bias remains skewed toward further downside tests rather than a durable recovery.