Gold Holds **$4,100** After CPI-Driven Rebound From October Low

Gold climbed above $4,100 per ounce on Monday, extending last week's gains as weaker oil prices eased inflationary pressures, though the metal remains caught between falling energy costs and a Federal Reserve that markets still expect to tighten in December. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 81% probability of a quarter-point rate increase before year-end, up from 71% ahead of the employment report. The October payrolls surprise—165,000 jobs added, well above market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%—kept the dollar and Treasury yields supported even as gold recovered from its late-October low near $3,870.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of further strikes against Iran, removing one source of inflation pressure but leaving the core policy question unanswered. China's central bank purchased 25.8 metric tons of gold in October, its largest monthly addition in three years, part of a broader pattern of official-sector accumulation that has provided a structural bid beneath spot markets. The rally from late October has been sharp—up roughly 5% by last Friday—but occurred against a backdrop of elevated real yields that historically weigh on non-yielding assets.

What the calendar says

Investors are now turning their attention to key US inflation data due this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October CPI today, 2026-11-10 at 12:30 UTC. Consensus expects +0.3% headline and +0.2% core month-on-month, though the report carries a complication: the BLS will not release standard 12-month percentage change figures due to the US government shutdown in 2025. A hotter-than-expected print would validate the December hike path already priced by fed funds futures, likely lifting the dollar and real yields and pressuring gold back toward the $4,000 threshold. A softer outcome would ease some of the hawkish pressure and support the case for holding above that psychological level. The Producer Price Index follows on 13 November.

Technical picture

The chart shows XAU/USD recovering sharply from a late-October low near $3,883 to test resistance at the $4,120 area. The horizontal line near $4,119.90 marks a clear short-term ceiling; price has tested but not yet closed convincingly above it. The steep angle of the rally from 30 October through 4 November suggests strong buying momentum, though the last two sessions have seen consolidation rather than continuation.

Support now sits at the recent breakout zone near $4,025, with the psychological $4,000 level below that acting as the line between structural recovery and renewed correction. The level analysts keep returning to is $4,000: a hot print threatens it, while a calm one supports the case for holding above it. A sustained break above $4,120 would open the next resistance band toward $4,200, a level mentioned repeatedly in recent commentary as the gateway to a broader continuation. For now, price action remains range-bound between $4,000 and $4,150, with today's CPI release the immediate catalyst that will determine which boundary gives way first. Our in-house signal engine reads Neutral, consistent with a market awaiting direction from the data.