Gold Slides to $3,953 as Hot CPI Fuels Jumbo Fed Hike Bets

Spot gold traded near $3,981 in Thursday's Asian session, November 12, after Wednesday's 1.2% drop pushed it back below $4,000. The chart shows XAU/USD on an hourly timeframe from October 22 through November 11, with price carving out a descent from above $4,140 to test demand just under $3,970 by the session close. US headline inflation eased to 0.4% month-on-month in October 2026, from 0.6% in September, but exceeded market expectations of 0.3%, while core inflation held steady at 0.3% for a third consecutive month, above forecasts of 0.2%. The US dollar index climbed toward 102.90, near its highest level since April 2025, as markets fully priced a December Fed hike following this week's hot CPI data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports further tightening in December and would favor a half-percentage-point increase if inflation continues to accelerate.

The dollar's strength is attributed to expectations of a December Fed rate hike, which negatively impacts gold prices. Markets now fully price in a rate hike in December, with an 88.5% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase and an 11.5% chance of a 50 bps move, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield jumped around 19 bps on Tuesday, while the benchmark ten-year yield climbed roughly 14 bps during the day, moving briefly back above 5%. Rising rate expectations weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. The shift pulled selling volume out of equities and into the dollar, though central banks continue to buy gold, limiting the downside.

What the calendar says

The Producer Price Index for October 2026 is scheduled to be released on November 13, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. The US PPI follows a surprise 1.3% rise month-on-month in September and 6.3% year-on-year, with core PPI up 0.7% m/m and 5.0% y/y; consensus sees October PPI slowing to 0.4% m/m and rising 6.6% y/y, while core PPI is expected to be 0.3% m/m and steady at 5.0% y/y. A higher-than-forecast print would reinforce expectations for a December hike; a meaningful deceleration would give gold room to recover. There are no economic reports scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 11, though this is Veterans Day, and while the bond market will be closed, this is not a stock market holiday. The November 13 PPI release comes in the context of the December FOMC meeting (scheduled for December 9-10, 2026), when the Federal Reserve will decide whether inflation is converging sufficiently toward its 2% target.

Technical picture

The chart identifies that Gold trades at $3,981.43, flat in the current candle, after breaking below a rising trendline linking higher lows since late October and the $4,015.07 support, turning the short-term trend bearish, and price has now reached the $3,969.42 demand zone, an area where buyers stepped in during early November. The high on November 4 sits near $4,144, and the descent has shed more than $170 in a week. The RSI reads about 30, the oversold line where bounces become more likely, while MACD sits just under its signal line, showing selling pressure is slowing. A 1-hour close below $3,969.42 targets $3,920, then $3,872. Resistance now clusters between $4,015 and $4,050; reclaiming that zone would be required to shift the bias back toward neutral. The combination of stretched positioning and proximity to the early-November low leaves the immediate risk two-way: a relief bounce can arrive swiftly if PPI softens, yet another upside surprise in producer prices would clear the path toward the lower targets.