Indices · 9 November 2026
Midterm Fallout and US CPI Dominate This Week's Market Outlook for Indices
S&P500 and DAX40 shed over 2% last week as Democratic election wins fuelled AI regulation fears ahead of Tuesday's US inflation print.
Ultimo Research
Concerns that Democratic midterm wins could lead to tighter AI-industry regulation and lower sector investment drove investors out of tech and AI-related stocks, sending the S&P 500 down 2.68% and the DAX 40 down 2.1% to close at 7,376.86 and 25,760 respectively. The heavy selling on Thursday sent the three major stock averages to their worst one-day losses since April 2025. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 5.5%, closing more than 10% below its most recent high, while Frankfurt's DAX 40 fell 2.1% to 25,760, amid ongoing global risk aversion associated to mounting fears of tighter US AI regulations. Friday brought a partial recovery, with chipmakers bouncing but equal-weight breadth remaining negative.
Worries of a potential slowdown in data center construction following big Democratic wins in the House and Senate and key state governorships hit U.S. markets hard on Thursday. The U.S. economy added 165,00 jobs in October, much more than expected, and the unemployment rate slipped slightly to 4.1%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected an increase of just 59,000 jobs, lifting the probability of a December Federal Reserve hike and putting a floor under Treasury yields. The most likely path now includes two hikes, in December and June, instead of December and April. CME FedWatch put the probability of a December hike at 76.3%, up from 70.7%.
What the calendar says
2026-11-10 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET) — US inflation (CPI) for October. The CPI report comes Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET with no yearly inflation rate. BLS says it will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 where that value is missing, which includes overall and core prices, a legacy of the October 2025 government shutdown that prevented data collection. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg and other sources expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month (down from +0.6% previously), with core CPI (excluding food and energy) advancing 0.2% MoM (down from +0.3%). US October CPI inflation arrives Tuesday, November 10, with forecasts near 3.9%. Economists expect annual inflation to rise to about 3.9%. That compares with 3.7% in September. Investors will focus on Tuesday's US CPI report and Friday's PPI for signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy decisions.
A hot print will reinforce the case for a December hike; a soft reading could give the Fed room to pause and would offer relief to risk assets. Nothing else of systemic importance for the S&P 500 or DAX 40 is scheduled in the days immediately ahead.
S&P 500 technical picture
The chart shows that the index traded in a high range of roughly 7,730 to 7,780 before the election-day spike, then dropped sharply to a low near 7,322 on 5 November, recovering to close Friday at 7,376.86. The index closed below its 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, holding only marginally above the 200-day threshold at 7,325. Support sits at the recent low around 7,320–7,350; resistance now lies at 7,430–7,460 (the falling short-term averages) and stronger resistance at the pre-election ledge near 7,550–7,600. Momentum remains fragile and breadth poor.
DAX 40 technical picture
The chart displays that the index rallied from around 25,100 to an intraday record near 26,693 on 5 November, then reversed violently. The DAX 40 closed at 26,325.01 points on Thursday 5 November 2026, down 112.66 points, or 0.43 percent. Earlier in the session the index climbed to a new all-time intraday high of 26,692.90, surpassing the previous record of roughly 26,618.74 set on 28 August 2026. Friday saw a further decline to close at 25,778. Support clusters around 25,600–25,750, with the psychologically significant 26,000 handle now acting as near-term resistance. A break back above 26,300 would confirm that buyers remain in control; failure to hold 25,600 opens the 25,000 round number as the next meaningful floor.
Both indices hold above their 200-day moving averages but need to reclaim broken short-term structure to rebuild conviction. Tuesday's US inflation data is the week's single most important catalyst.
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