Oil Tests $90 as Iran Tensions Overshadow OPEC+ Supply Plans

Crude oil continues to trade near its strongest levels since early summer, with WTI pressing toward the psychologically significant $90 mark on the hourly chart after trading around $91 a barrel on Friday and gaining nearly 9% for the week. The rally has been fueled by US-Iran strikes that resumed this week for the first time in about a month, reigniting concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. US Vice President JD Vance said Washington does not plan to hold talks with Tehran unless Iran stops attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring geopolitical risk premiums. The chart shows a decisive break above the $87-88 congestion zone, with the $90.43-$91.09 area now serving as immediate resistance, while a pullback would likely find support near $87.

On the supply side, OPEC+ has approved a 188,000-bpd production increase for September, completing its planned output restoration while signaling quotas are likely to remain steady through year-end. However, many OPEC+ members remain unable to raise output to their allotted quotas because of technical and operational constraints, limiting the practical impact of quota hikes. With US commercial crude oil inventories expected to remain below the five-year low through the end of 2026, the fundamental backdrop continues to support elevated prices absent a meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East.