Central Banks Take Centre Stage as Equity Indices Test Support

Markets are pricing a September Fed hike as "almost done deal" following the latest consumer price data, with money markets showing strong conviction despite equity buyers stepping in to halt a four-day drop in the S&P 500. The US benchmark fell to 7619 points on September 14, down 1.63% over the past month, while rallying oil prices following Saudi Arabia's shutdown of a key pipeline after drone attacks weighed on major US averages last week. European markets faced similar headwinds, with the DAX testing support after reaching an all-time high above 25,000 in early January.

Markets are pricing in approximately 86% probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of continued easing. August CPI rose 0.4% as expected, with core CPI advancing 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of next week's decision.

What the calendar says

Three major central bank decisions arrive within 48 hours this week, each carrying the potential to reset policy expectations across asset classes.

2026-09-16 18:00 UTC — The FOMC decision delivers the Federal Reserve's rate call alongside updated economic projections and the Summary of Economic Projections dot plot. Markets are pricing approximately 86% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, driven by elevated energy prices and persistent inflation pressures. The decision shapes rate expectations for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.

2026-09-17 11:00 UTC — The Bank of England announces its rate decision on GBP/USD. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at the last meeting, with three members voting to increase it to 4%, reflecting growing concern that higher energy prices could lead to more persistent inflation. UK inflation rose from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July, complicating the outlook.

2026-09-18 — The Bank of Japan delivers its policy statement, the final piece in the week's central bank trilogy. No fixed time is published. The decision is the primary driver for USD/JPY positioning.

S&P 500: Testing support after oil-driven selloff

The chart shows the S&P 500 on an hourly timeframe spanning late August through September 11. The index dropped below its 50-day moving average Thursday for the first time since late July, following August's rally to an all-time high close just under 7,800. The horizontal red line marks support at approximately 7,606, a level tested multiple times through the period shown. Price action reveals two distinct peaks—one near 7,775 in late August and another near 7,764 in early September—before the recent decline. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,656.98, gaining 0.86% for the session, but ended the week approximately 0.8% lower. The 7,600–7,606 zone now defines near-term support; a break below would expose the next technical layer closer to 7,550.

DAX 40: Consolidation after record highs

The chart displays the DAX 40 on an hourly basis from August 20 through September 11. The DAX surpassed 25,000 points for the first time in its history on January 7, 2026, and the chart shows price action after that milestone. The index reached an intraday high near 26,613 on August 28 before entering a choppy consolidation phase. A horizontal support line sits at approximately 25,417, tested multiple times in the window shown. The index carved lower highs through early September, dropping as low as 25,368 on September 10 before a modest recovery. European equities fell following an ECB rate hike, adding to the downward pressure. The 25,400–25,500 band now acts as the near-term floor; a sustained break would mark a deeper retracement from the summer highs.

What the technicals and the calendar mean together

Both indices are testing support zones at a moment when rate-hike probabilities have climbed sharply. Treasury yields are up more than 25 basis points since the all-time high close, and the Dow and Nasdaq-100 also fell below their 50-day moving averages this week. The economic calendar concentrates three major policy announcements into 72 hours, each capable of resetting volatility and directional bias. Our in-house hourly signal engine reads Strong Sell on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, Strong Buy on USD/JPY, Sell on gold, and Buy/Strong Buy on the crypto majors—a configuration that reflects dollar strength and risk-off tones ahead of the Fed. Whether the indices hold or break their respective support levels may hinge less on the charts themselves than on the language and projections that emerge from Washington, London and Tokyo.