Energy · 11 September 2026
Crude Breaks $100 as Middle East Tensions Grip Energy Markets
WTI crude surged past $100 ahead of today's US inflation data, with geopolitical risk overwhelming dollar-driven headwinds.
Ultimo Research
Crude oil rose above $100 a barrel on Thursday, reaching its highest level since May 19, capping a rally that has added more than $20 to the price in three weeks. The chart shows WTI spot prices climbing from lows near $80 in late August to a peak above $100 on September 10, with the steepest acceleration coming after September 9 when prices cleared $95. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production fell sharply in August 2026, dropping by around 1.9 million barrels a day, while Iran reported strikes on US warships and tankers in the Persian Gulf, while the US said it had hit 10 Iranian tankers. Oil tanker rates have jumped to record highs, while US crude inventories fell by 300,000 barrels in the week ended September 4th.
Global oil inventories have decreased by 400 million barrels so far this year, according to the Energy Information Administration's September outlook. The Brent crude oil spot price increased to an average of $91 per barrel in August, and EIA forecasts Brent will average around $90/b in the second half of 2026, $8/b higher than in last month's STEO. The agency expects gradual normalization as oil production in the Middle East will rise in the coming months because of gradually increasing flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though some constraints to exporting oil from the Middle East will persist through the end of the year.
What the calendar says
The week ahead is dominated by three heavyweight releases from the economic calendar. First up is US inflation for August, due today, September 11, 2026, at 12:30 UTC from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a second consecutive month to 3.4% in July 2026, and today's print will reset expectations for the Federal Reserve decision in five days' time. The spike in energy costs through late summer means headline CPI moves EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.
The FOMC announces its rate decision and publishes fresh projections on September 16, 2026, at 18:00 UTC. Market pricing will hinge on whether the committee sees the recent oil shock as transitory or a reason to slow the pace of easing. The Bank of England follows a day later, September 17, 2026, at 11:00 UTC, with direct impact on GBP/USD. Finally, the Bank of Japan meets September 18, 2026—time not yet fixed—bearing on USD/JPY.
Crude oil: technical picture
The hourly chart identifies WTI Crude Oil Spot across the period August 20 to September 11, 2026. Price carved out a clear three-phase pattern: a consolidation band between $85 and $87 through late August, a measured climb through early September that lifted the market to $91, then a vertical acceleration from September 9 onward that printed successive higher highs at $93, $95, $98, and finally $100.69 on September 10. The most recent candles show a pullback to approximately $99.50, suggesting the initial thrust may be pausing for consolidation.
Support now clusters around $97 where the breakout from the prior range found acceptance, with secondary support at $93 marking the low of the final rally leg. Resistance sits at the session high of $100.69, then the psychological $101 to $102 zone where Brent has recently traded. Momentum remains elevated but the hourly candles are showing longer wicks, a sign that buyers are meeting seller interest at triple-digit handles. Volume patterns through the breakout confirm strong participation, though any sharp reversal in Middle East headlines or a stronger-than-expected dollar response to today's CPI could trigger profit-taking.
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