Crude Holds Above $100 as Elections and Central Bank Week Loom

Crude oil consolidates around $101 per barrel after pulling back from a five-month high of $103.39 reached on Friday. WTI declined 1.46 percent on Monday, its sharpest one-day drop since late September, as diplomatic talks between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan eased immediate supply concerns. Yet the session low of $100.33 held, and the contract remains in a bullish structure above all major moving averages. Brent settled at $115.81, keeping the Brent–WTI spread near $14.05 and close to an eleven-year resistance zone that has capped the differential since 2015.

Geopolitical risk continues to anchor prices. Houthi forces claimed fresh attacks on Saudi pipeline infrastructure over the weekend, while Lebanese group Hezbollah signals readiness to resume hostilities with Israel. Stalled talks between the United States and Iran add to uncertainty, even as Tehran indicated openness to a shorter proposal timeline if conditions are met. Israel's general election takes place tomorrow, October 27, with markets pricing opposition leader Gadi Eizenkot at a 53.8 percent probability of becoming prime minister, ahead of incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu at 28 percent. The US midterm elections follow on November 3, and both votes carry implications for Middle East policy and the trajectory of sanctions.

What the calendar says

Three central bank decisions arrive within forty-eight hours, beginning with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, October 28 at 18:00 UTC. The FOMC statement will be scrutinised for signals on inflation tolerance and the policy path into year-end, with bond yields holding near 4.99 percent and the dollar index firm at 101.96. A hawkish tone would support the dollar and pressure commodities priced in dollars, while any dovish shift could lift risk appetite and reinforce the oil rally.

The European Central Bank announces its rate decision on Thursday, October 29 at 12:15 UTC, followed by the Bank of Japan's policy decision on Friday, October 30, time not yet fixed. Neither decision directly targets crude, but coordinated tightening or surprise easing would move currency crosses and shift capital flows across asset classes. The weekly petroleum status report is due Wednesday at 10:30 AM Eastern, offering the first read on inventory changes since the latest rally.

Further out, the Bank of England meets next Thursday, November 5 at 11:00 UTC, and US nonfarm payrolls land on Friday, November 6 at 12:30 UTC. Our full schedule is at /tools/economic-calendar.

Technical picture

The hourly chart shows WTI holding a tight range between $100.33 and $103.13 on Monday, the narrowest intraday span since October 22. The contract remains above the 100-period simple moving average at around $94.74 on the four-hour timeframe, confirming near-term support. Daily charts place the 20-day exponential moving average at $95.68, with the relative strength index at 62.99—positive but below overbought territory.

Immediate support sits at $100.35, a pivot level that aligns with one standard deviation below recent action. Deeper pullbacks would test $99.17, then $96.97 and $94.98, a cluster of Fibonacci retracements that overlap the 100-period average. Resistance begins at the Friday high of $103.39, then extends to $105, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci extension and the September peak. A clear break there opens $110 to $114, where yearly highs and a trendline dating to March converge. Session lows have risen for four consecutive days, and directional indicators remain constructive while price holds above $99.