Crude Oil Holds Above $100 as Middle East Risks Support Rally

Crude oil has pushed back above the $100 level after a sustained rally from early October lows near $87. The recovery accelerated from 6 October, when prices bottomed near the 50% midpoint of the summer advance, and buyers have since reclaimed both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. Renewed attacks on infrastructure in the Gulf region and a reported evacuation of staff from headquarters in Dhahran have added a risk premium to energy markets, while commercial inventories in the United States fell 3.1 million barrels in the week ended 16 October, leaving stocks roughly 3% below the five-year average. That tightness has kept dips toward $98 well supported.

The chart shows WTI testing resistance between $100.60 and $101.20 for the third time this week. A rising trendline from the early October low continues to lift the structure, and both moving averages slope higher beneath price, confirming that the short-term uptrend remains intact. Buyers have defended the $97.47 to $98.00 zone on every pullback, with the 100-hour average at $98.23 and the 200-hour average at $96.28 marking the key floors. A clean break above $101.20 would open the way toward $102.45 and then $104.38, while a sustained close below $97.47 and the trendline would bring $95.31 and $93.54 back into play.

Brent settled at $113.17 on Thursday, its highest close since May 2026, and now trades near $113.99 after breaking above the $112.05 high. The contract is pressing against the upper boundary of the rising channel that has guided prices since early October, with the 1.272 Fibonacci extension near $113.68 already reached. The next target sits at $115.77, followed by $118.07 and $119.71. Support appears first at $112.07, just above the old $112.05 high, then at $109.74, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the recent leg and the channel floor. Both moving averages rise well below price, so the trend structure favours buyers as long as $112.07 holds.

What the calendar says

Three central bank decisions fall in the week ahead, though none is scheduled to move crude directly. The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on 28 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC, followed by the European Central Bank on 29 October at 12:15 UTC and the Bank of Japan later in the week. Each will influence the dollar and, by extension, the pricing of dollar-denominated commodities, but no inventory or production data is fixed on the economic calendar for the days immediately ahead. The oil market will instead take direction from developments in the Gulf region and from next week's inventory reports.

Technical picture

WTI is pressing into the $100.60 to $101.20 resistance zone, with momentum indicators still positive. The relative strength index sits near 59, above its signal line at 56, so the rally retains room to extend without entering overbought territory. The 100-hour moving average at $98.23 is the first support; a move back below would give sellers a foothold, especially if price stays beneath that level. The 200-hour average at $96.28 defines the more significant floor, and only a sustained break below it would shift the short-term bias back toward the downside. Until then, the structure favours buyers, with a close above $101.20 confirming the breakout and bringing $102.45 into focus. Below $97.47, the rising trendline and support zone converge, making that level the line in the sand for the current uptrend.