Energy · 15 September 2026
Crude Oil Holds Near $99 as Three Central Banks Take Centre Stage
WTI consolidates after topping $100; FOMC, BoE and BoJ decisions land within 48 hours starting tomorrow 18:00 UTC.
Ultimo Research
Crude oil rose to 102.81 USD per barrel on September 15, 2026, up 1.40% from the previous day, capping a rally that has seen the price rise 21.66% over the past month. The chart shows WTI spot trading at $99.45 on an hourly timeframe, consolidating just below the psychological $100.00 barrier after brushing $104.02 per barrel on September 11. The lack of a clear path to a resolution in the Middle East is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and limiting crude supplies from the Middle East, while Wednesday's sharp decline in the dollar index to a 2.5-month low was bullish for energy prices.
The rally stalled at the round number and retraced sharply to a low near $97.00, but buyers defended that zone and pushed price back toward the $100.00 level. Support now sits at the $98.00–$98.50 consolidation band visible on the chart, with the August highs near $100.00–$100.70 acting as resistance. A clean break and hold above $100.70 would open the door toward the September 11 peak near $104.00.
What the calendar says
Three central-bank decisions land within 48 hours, starting tomorrow. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision and projections on 2026-09-16 at 18:00 UTC; the outcome moves EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD. Market pricing shows a 58.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, up from near zero a month ago, and the current target range stands at 3.5%–3.75%.
The Bank of England decides on 2026-09-17 at 11:00 UTC, moving GBP/USD. The MPC voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, and the BoE is predicted to hold interest rates again, though market pricing makes a hold the most likely outcome, with roughly a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point rise.
The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on 2026-09-18 (time not fixed), moving USD/JPY. All 52 BOJ watchers forecast borrowing costs will be raised at the end of the meeting on Sept. 18, and swap contracts show a roughly 97% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing costs from 1%. If all three deliver tightening in one week, the dollar and risk assets face a repricing.
Crude oil — hourly chart
The instrument is WTI crude oil spot, trading on an hourly timeframe from late August through mid-September. The dominant feature is a clean uptrend from $80.00 in late August to just above $100.00 in mid-September, followed by a sharp pullback and a tentative recovery. The chart prints higher lows throughout the rally, and the most recent swing low sits near $97.10. Resistance clusters around $100.00–$100.70, where price peaked twice in the past week before sellers stepped in.
A hold above $98.00 keeps the bullish structure intact and leaves the door open for another test of triple digits. Below $97.00, the next support zone sits near $94.50–$95.00, where price consolidated in early September. US crude's price is expected to face volatility this week due to the Fed's interest rate decision and FOMC economic projections, and any hawkish surprise from the three central banks can strengthen the dollar and weigh on commodities priced in greenbacks.
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk. Please read our full Risk Disclosure Statement.