Crude Oil Pulls Back as Hormuz Diplomacy Gains Traction

WTI crude oil has given back almost all of the gains from its mid-September push above $101, closing Monday around $89.46 as the five-day slide extended into the current session. Brent fell to around $98 a barrel on September 22, while WTI dropped to $91.59 on September 21, though both benchmarks have since steadied. The retreat follows reports that Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if a US blockade were lifted, potentially creating a basis for discussions during the UN General Assembly this week.

Saudi Arabia was in the early stages of starting up the East-West oil pipeline that was halted following drone attacks earlier this month, with the kingdom aiming to restore exports via the line later this week. That development, combined with US Central Command reporting crude and LNG flows through Hormuz have reached a six-month high, has allowed some of the geopolitical premium to leak out of the market. Yet supply remains fragile: global oil inventories are estimated to have decreased by 400 million barrels so far this year, and the EIA notes that constraints to exporting oil from the Middle East will persist through the end of the year.

What the calendar says

The economic calendar carries one major release next week that bears directly on oil demand expectations and the broader dollar complex. On 2026-10-02 at 12:30 UTC, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the US nonfarm payrolls report for September. That print will influence rate expectations and the dollar, feeding through to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and gold, and it shapes the outlook for US energy consumption. Beyond that scheduled event, nothing on the official docket is due in the days immediately ahead.

Crude Oil: support at $89, resistance at $98–$101

The chart shows WTI oscillating between $87.86 and $101.92 across September, with the recent peak on September 15 marking the highest level since late June. Price has broken below a horizontal support shelf near $89.36 that had contained the market through much of the month, and the instrument now trades just above that floor. The $94 area cited in technical commentary as ideal support for a higher low sits roughly $5 overhead.

Resistance clusters around $98 to $101, a zone that capped the rally twice in mid-September. A reclaim of $98 would reopen the path toward $110, the top of the next Fibonacci band frequently mentioned in wave counts. On the downside, a sustained close below $89 would bring $87 into view, and below that the $82 to $85 region represents the August consolidation base. Hourly momentum has turned neutral after the five-session decline, leaving the immediate direction dependent on whether geopolitical headlines reignite the risk premium or whether diplomacy continues to sap the bull case.