Energy · 9 November 2026
Crude Oil Rebounds From Sharp Midterm Selloff; CPI Tuesday In Focus
WTI stabilises near $90 after a 13% weekly drop as Iran peace hopes offset supply risks, with US CPI tomorrow key to the near-term outlook.
Ultimo Research
Crude has steadied after its steepest weekly decline since 2020, with WTI settling at $90.83 on Friday, November 6, down nearly 13% for the week, while Brent fell more than 16%. The sharp selloff came as Democrats secured control of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections, potentially limiting support for the war against Iran. Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, fuelling hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Yet significant obstacles remain, as Iran is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while attacks on oil-carrying vessels continue.
US crude oil inventories fell by 0.865 million barrels in the week ended October 30, marking a fifth consecutive weekly decline, underscoring demand resilience even as prices tumbled. The EIA forecast the Brent spot price to average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, assuming oil flows from the Middle East remain constrained through that period, with shut-in production averaging 4.5 million barrels per day. Despite ongoing attacks on vessels transiting Hormuz, a revival in crude exports from the Persian Gulf has added to the bearish mood, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates restoring shipments to prewar levels.
What the calendar says
The main event this week is US CPI data for October, due 2026-11-10 at 12:30 UTC. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for release on November 10, 2026, providing updated supply and demand forecasts. OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report is due Wednesday, November 11, and will offer the producer group's latest assessment of global demand and inventory balances. Inflation readings matter for crude because they influence the dollar and rate expectations, which in turn affect commodity demand and financing costs. A hotter-than-expected CPI print could strengthen the greenback and weigh on oil, while softer inflation might ease pressure on central banks and support risk appetite. Visit our economic calendar for the full week ahead.
The technical picture
The chart shows that the contract peaked near $104 on October 30 before plunging to a low around $87 on November 5, a drop of roughly $17 in less than a week. Price has since recovered to the $89–$90 zone, consolidating after the steep decline. Resistance now sits at $92–$93, the first bounce level after the Wednesday selloff, with a secondary cap at $96–$97 where the decline paused briefly. Support lies at $88, the Friday low and the floor of the current range, with a break below targeting the $86 level last seen in early trading on November 5. The sharp V-shaped recovery off the lows suggests buyers stepped in at the $87–$88 area, but the structure remains bearish below $97, the breakdown point. A sustained close above that level would be needed to shift the technical tone, while further setbacks may find support near $88 before the next leg lower becomes likely.
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