Energy · 21 September 2026
Crude Oil Retreats From $102 Peak as Saudi Pipeline Repairs Progress
WTI has fallen back below $100 after Tuesday's high, with API inventory data and flash PMI figures due this week.
Ultimo Research
WTI Crude is up 63.9% year-to-date in 2026, but the rally that pushed prices to nearly $102 this week has reversed sharply. Crude Oil reached a high near $102 on Tuesday but gave back most of the gains during the rest of the week and closed below $100 on Friday. Markets expect the closure of Saudi Arabia's key pipeline to have a smaller impact on supplies than initially feared, with satellite imagery suggesting Saudi Arabia moved 2.8 million bpd through the Strait of Hormuz over the past six days, compared with just 700,000 bpd in August.
The backdrop remains dominated by Middle East disruptions. Crude oil production shut-ins averaged 6.7 million barrels per day in August, up from 5.0 million b/d in July. Satellite imagery and industry sources indicated that three pumping stations serving Saudi Arabia's vital East-West Pipeline were damaged in last week's attack. Yet reports that Aramco expects to restore half of the pipeline's daily flows also eased supply concerns.
OPEC+ completed its unwinding of voluntary production cuts in September, though much of that additional supply has yet to reach physical markets. OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production quotas for the sixth consecutive month by 188,000 barrels per day in September, completing the phased rollback of the voluntary supply cuts introduced in 2023. Delegates told Bloomberg last week the group currently expects to hold production quotas steady for the remainder of 2026 following the September increase.
What the calendar says
Tuesday, September 22 at 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Inventory Data will provide the first read on US crude stockpiles for the week and may influence near-term sentiment given the persistent draw on Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels. This week, USCRUDE is expected to show moderate volatility amid the release of weekly crude oil inventory data from the API, preliminary September PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors—the flash PMI readings drop Wednesday, September 23 at 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI, offering early insight into demand conditions across major economies. On the monetary side, Tuesday at 10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for September rounds out the scheduled data points.
Visit the full economic calendar for release times and prior readings.
Crude Oil: Technical picture
Price broke decisively above the $93 resistance zone on September 9, eventually topping out around $102 on the 16th before the current pullback. Tuesday's high may have marked minute wave 3, with Crude Oil now trading within minute wave 4 and ideal support around the $94 area.
On September 21, the Crude price is expected to continue consolidating within the range of $94.91–$97.41. The horizontal red line on the chart near $93 marks the prior consolidation ceiling; a move back below that threshold would shift attention to deeper support. A daily close below $98–$101 would shift focus toward the $94 support area for minute wave 4. Conversely, a reclaim of the $100 handle and subsequent break of the recent $102 high would reopen the path toward the next Fibonacci resistance area around $110–$113.
However, any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could sharply increase volatility. The interplay between physical supply restoration and geopolitical headline risk will remain the dominant driver through the balance of September.
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