Crude Retreats from Six-Month Peak as Diplomacy Eases Supply Fears

Crude oil pulled back on Monday after closing October at a six-month high, as diplomatic channels between Iran and Qatar entered a third day of negotiations and the weekend passed without fresh military strikes. West Texas Intermediate fell to $100.53, breaking below the rising channel that had guided prices higher since early October. Brent January futures traded near $110.02, testing support at the $109.17 channel floor. The retreat reflects a repricing of geopolitical risk rather than a structural shift in supply fundamentals, but the move has left both benchmarks at decision points heading into a week crowded with macro events that could influence the dollar and risk appetite.

The OPEC+ decision over the weekend reinforced the supply backdrop. Seven core members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman—kept December production targets unchanged at about 31 million barrels per day. Because most members are pumping well below those ceilings owing to the ongoing conflict, the quota remains a theoretical limit rather than a binding constraint. US drilling activity continued to tilt toward oil, with rigs rising by two to 462 in the latest week, their highest since early October, while gas rigs fell by two to 130. The shift follows the price signal: oil above $100 attracts capital, gas below $3 loses it.

What the calendar says

The economic schedule this week carries no releases specific to energy markets, but three major events will shape the dollar and broader risk sentiment, which in turn feed through to commodities. On 5 November at 11:00 UTC, the Bank of England will announce its rate decision alongside the Monetary Policy Report; that outcome will move sterling and influence cross-currency flows. The 6 November US jobs report at 12:30 UTC will update the labour-market picture and set expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with direct implications for the dollar index and risk assets. Finally, 10 November at 12:30 UTC brings US inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index, a key input for rate expectations and another dollar driver. Each of these releases has the potential to shift the currency backdrop against which oil is priced, but none speaks directly to supply, demand or inventories. For a full schedule, see our economic calendar.

Technical picture

The chart shows WTI trading near $100.53 after breaking the bottom of its rising channel. Immediate support sits at $99.61, a zone that has held since late October; a four-hour close below it would open $95.41, the next significant floor. On the upside, resistance appears at the broken channel line near $101.60, then at $103.94, the level that would restore the uptrend structure. The RSI has dropped to about 43 and trades below its signal line, suggesting sellers retain near-term control. The bias remains neutral while $99.61 holds.

Brent is consolidating near $110.02, testing the $109.17 support zone that aligns with the bottom of its own rising channel. A two-hour close below that floor would open $106.02. Resistance is layered at the channel midline near $111.30, then at $112.20, and finally at $114.37. The RSI has fallen to about 40, and price sits just below the twenty-period moving average at $101.86, signalling short-term weakness. A sustained move above $112.20 would favour buyers; until then, the range prevails.