Crude Reverses From Multi-Week High as Diplomacy Talk Gathers Pace

Crude oil has reversed sharply from the top of its recent advance. December WTI settled Friday at $104.12, the highest close of the move, after tagging resistance near $105.00. By Monday's close the contract had erased that entire breakout, trading back below $100 for the first time since 22 October and settling around $99.61, down 4.3% on the session. The catalyst was renewed diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran, with reports that the administration wants to give talks more time before considering any resumption of military action after Tuesday's midterm elections. Iranian officials confirmed that dialogue through intermediaries remains intensive, with revised proposals exchanged over recent days. The hope of a breakthrough has chipped away at the risk premium that drove Brent up 12% in October, though tanker attacks around Hormuz and Houthi drone interceptions in Saudi Arabia continue to signal fragile supply security.

The technical picture underscores the reversal. December WTI broke down through the $101.40 breakout point and last week's $100.56 low, confirming a failure at the upper boundary of the rising wedge pattern that had guided the rally. The contract found a temporary floor at $94.30 early Tuesday before recovering toward $97.12, still well below the 20-day moving average at $96.78. A settlement below Monday's $99.28 low would open the next support at $98.84, then the rising 20-day average. Beneath that, the wedge's lower boundary sits near $92.45 and the 50-day average near $91.61. On the topside, reclaiming $101.40 would treat Monday's drop as a shakeout and reopen $102.75 and Friday's $104.12 high. The Relative Strength Index has retreated from overbought territory into neutral ground, leaving directional momentum balanced for now.

What the calendar says

No scheduled release on the economic calendar directly targets the crude complex this week. The Bank of England's decision and Monetary Policy Report arrive 5 November at 11:00 UTC, moving sterling rather than energy prices. US nonfarm payrolls follow 6 November at 12:30 UTC, a figure that typically drives dollar crosses and precious metals but leaves oil responding indirectly through broader risk sentiment. The next data point with potential feed-through to crude is the US inflation print on 10 November at 12:30 UTC, which can shift expectations for demand growth and the dollar's trajectory. Until then, price action will be driven by developments on the diplomatic front, any further incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and inventory data due later this session.

Technical outlook

The chart shows a five-wave recovery that appears to be exhausting, with momentum divergence warning of fading bullish pressure. Support clusters around the $95.50 psychological level and the 200-day exponential moving average at $95.49, a zone that has attracted technical buying on previous tests. A break below $94.15 would confirm a deeper correction and expose the $92.45 wedge boundary. Resistance is layered at $99.79, then the 21-day simple moving average near $101.19, with the psychological $100 mark in between. The Bollinger middle band sits at $96.80, with the upper band at $104.95 capping recent upside. As long as price holds above the 200-day average, the broader structure remains constructive, but a close beneath that average would shift the near-term bias and invite a test of the 7/8 Murray level and the $90 round figure below.