Crude Tests Triple Resistance as Fed, ECB Decisions Loom

West Texas Intermediate crude was trading around $101 early Wednesday after Yemen's Houthi forces claimed a ballistic-missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom's largest at 550,000 barrels per day. Brent rose 1.3% to $115.36, recovering part of Tuesday's near-$2 loss when diplomatic talks in Tehran briefly eased supply fears. The strike revived concerns about disruptions in a region already on edge, with Iran-backed groups expanding attacks and military presence growing across the Gulf. The geopolitical risk premium that lifted crude through October remains embedded in prices, even as Israel's election on 27 October ended without a clear governing majority and left the path forward uncertain.

Inventory data added a demand layer to the picture. The American Petroleum Institute estimated that US crude stocks fell about 2.03 million barrels in the week to 23 October, against analyst expectations of a small 15,000-barrel build. Distillate inventories rose 380,000 barrels but remain roughly 9% below the five-year average, a tightness that supports refined-product prices. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration are due Wednesday alongside the Federal Reserve's rate decision, bringing both supply data and macro policy into focus on the same day.

What the calendar says

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision today, 28 October at 18:00 UTC. While the Fed's stance on rates feeds into dollar strength and broader risk appetite, the decision will be watched for any shift in the inflation or growth outlook that could alter expectations for energy demand in the months ahead. The European Central Bank follows on 29 October at 12:15 UTC, and the Bank of Japan meets on 30 October—though neither is expected to directly move crude, their combined effect on currency markets and global liquidity conditions can ripple through commodity positioning. Further out, the Bank of England decides on 5 November at 11:00 UTC and the US jobs report lands on 6 November at 12:30 UTC; employment strength or weakness will shape the demand side of the crude equation heading into year-end. The full schedule sits on our economic calendar.

Technical picture

The chart shows WTI in a consolidation phase between roughly $99.50 and $103.20 since late October. Price broke above $99.61 earlier in the month, touched $103.94, and has since held that breakout zone on each pullback. A rising trendline connecting higher lows from mid-October continues to guide the advance, currently passing near $99.50. Resistance comes in layers: $103.94 marks the recent peak, then $107.38 aligns with a longer-term extension target. Support holds at $99.61, the breakout level, then $95.33 if that gives way. The relative strength index sits around 64, positive but not stretched, leaving room for another leg if geopolitical developments or inventory draws provide the catalyst. A close above $103.94 would open the path toward $107, while a drop through $99.61 would shift the near-term bias back toward $95. Two chart gaps remain unfilled below the market—one between $83.40 and $84.69 from late August, another between $67.02 and $75.00 from early March—reminders that volatility can work both ways if the war premium unwinds or supply fears ease.