DAX and S&P 500 Rebound After Oil Plunge—BoE and Payrolls Ahead

Global equity indices staged a sharp reversal on Monday as diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran sent oil prices tumbling and pulled Wall Street back from last week's technology-sector sell-off. The S&P 500 recovered 0.68% to close at 7,631, climbing back above the 7,619 moving average after Friday's 1.82% drop—the sharpest single-session loss since June. Across the Atlantic, the DAX 40 rose 0.68% to 25,994, extending its rebound from the October low and testing the 26,000 psychological level for the first time in recent sessions.

The catalyst was crude: Brent fell roughly 6% to around $106 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate dropped near $97 after comments from the Secretary of State suggested a preference for a peaceful resolution to the Iran standoff and Tehran's foreign minister indicated a deal was possible with sufficient goodwill. The lower oil price dragged the ten-year Treasury yield down about 4 basis points to 4.88% and the dollar index 0.35% lower to 101.60. US midterm elections took place yesterday, and while historical patterns show equities tend to rally in the months after a midterm vote, immediate attention has already shifted to the data and central-bank decisions that fill the rest of the week.

What the calendar says

Thursday 5 November at 11:00 UTC brings the Bank of England rate decision and Monetary Policy Report. Markets are pricing in an increase to 4.0% following September's hike to 3.75%, but the tone of the forward guidance will matter more than the move itself: any hint that the tightening cycle is approaching its end could weigh on sterling and ripple through European risk sentiment. UK inflation rebounded to 3.5% in the most recent print, keeping pressure on policymakers.

Friday 6 November at 12:30 UTC delivers the US nonfarm payrolls report for October. The consensus forecast is around 62,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady. September's headline gain came in at just 29,000, the weakest print in months, and another soft number could prompt markets to scale back expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike—currently priced near 70% probability. A weaker-than-expected reading would likely push Treasury yields lower and ease some of the upward pressure on the dollar, while a strong beat would reinforce the case for another Fed move before year-end. Check all scheduled releases on our economic calendar.

S&P 500: holding above 7,619 but capped by 7,696–7,724

The chart shows the S&P 500 trading at 7,599 as of the latest snapshot, having reclaimed the 7,619 slow moving average during Monday's session. The index remains inside a rising channel from the late-July low, currently in the lower half of that structure. Resistance sits at 7,696 and 7,724, levels that have capped rallies since late October, with the channel top near 7,990. Support is found at 7,619 and then 7,500, where Friday's session printed a wick before reversing. The relative strength index reads 45.91, below its 47.96 average, indicating momentum is soft but improving from the Friday low. A sustained close above 7,724 would reopen the path toward 7,830, while a break back under 7,619 puts 7,500 in play. Technology earnings—particularly results from major semiconductor and enterprise-software names—and Friday's jobs data are the immediate catalysts.

DAX 40: testing 26,000 above three moving averages

The chart for the DAX 40 shows the index at 25,842 in the most recent available data, after closing Monday at 25,994. Price is trading above its 25,577, 25,523 and 25,433 moving averages, keeping the broader picture constructive inside a rising channel from the March low. Immediate resistance is at 26,022, the recent high, with the next target at 26,520 if that level is cleared. Support is located at 25,523, the nearest moving average, and then 24,800, which marks the lower boundary of the rising channel. The relative strength index stands at 59.28, above its 52.69 average, suggesting firm but not overbought conditions. A daily close above 26,022 would confirm the breakout and bring 26,520 into focus, while a move back under 25,523 would shift attention to the 24,800 channel floor. Lower oil prices have supported the index by easing cost pressures on airlines and other energy-sensitive sectors, but the European session will be sensitive to any headlines around UK monetary policy or shifts in the dollar.