DAX and S&P 500 Rebound on Oil Relief, Face Midterm and Apple Tests

The S&P 500 and DAX 40 are staging sharp Monday rebounds after last week's technology rout, lifted by a dramatic fall in crude oil on renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy. The S&P 500 is trading 0.68% higher at 7,631 as of mid-afternoon in New York, while the DAX 40 has climbed 0.68% to 25,994 heading into the European close. Brent crude has dropped roughly 6% to around $106 per barrel after statements from both Washington and Tehran suggested that a negotiated end to the standoff remains possible. Cheaper oil has pulled Treasury yields lower and eased inflation fears, but the relief may prove fragile: the market had priced in escalation after Tuesday's midterm elections, so any stalling in the talks would reverse the move quickly. The S&P 500 suffered its worst session since June on Friday, shedding 1.82% as Intel's 30% earnings plunge triggered fresh doubts about artificial intelligence valuations. The index now sits barely above a cluster of moving averages that have capped rallies since late October, and the real tests land after the bell tonight with Apple earnings, followed by Tuesday's vote and a packed week of data.

What the calendar says

Tuesday 3 November brings the US congressional midterm elections, with results expected Wednesday morning European time. Democrats are widely forecast to retake the House while the Senate remains uncertain; a clean sweep would likely bring more scrutiny to data-center buildouts and energy costs tied to AI infrastructure, though few expect legislation that would materially threaten investment. Thursday 5 November at 11:00 UTC the Bank of England decides on rates, with expectations building for a hike to 4.00% given persistently high energy prices and robust UK growth. Friday 6 November at 12:30 UTC the US nonfarm payrolls report for October is due, with forecasts around 60,000 to 62,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.2%. That figure will offer a critical read on labour-market resilience after recent volatility in the monthly prints. The full schedule sits on our economic calendar.

S&P 500: clinging to support, more tests ahead

The chart shows the S&P 500 rallying from Friday's low near 7,534 back above the 7,620 to 7,632 support zone that had held as resistance before breaking higher in mid-October. Monday's recovery has pushed price back above that floor, but the index remains well below the 7,700 to 7,780 resistance band visible across the past two weeks. The broader daily structure shows the index in the lower half of a rising channel from the summer low, with the channel top near 7,990 and the floor around 7,500. A daily close below 7,618 would reopen the 7,500 support and bring the 200-day average near 7,325 into focus. On the upside, rallies face resistance at 7,675 and then 7,723 before the 7,830 to 7,990 zone comes into play. RSI is recovering from oversold levels but remains under its average, consistent with range-bound trade.

DAX 40: pressing 26,000 above three averages

The chart shows the DAX climbing steadily from the late-October low near 25,076 toward the 26,145 peak reached last week. Monday's advance has carried price back above 25,713, testing the 26,000 round number for the first time since Thursday. The index is trading above three moving averages clustered between 25,433 and 25,577, suggesting that the near-term structure remains constructive while those levels hold. Resistance stands at the recent high of 26,145 and then the 26,520 area, with support at 25,713 and then the 25,522 average. A break below 25,522 would put the 24,800 channel floor back in play. The daily structure shows the DAX in the middle of a rising channel from the March low, with the floor near 24,800 and scope for extension toward 26,500 if momentum continues. RSI is above its average but not yet overbought, leaving room for further gains if today's rally holds into the close.