Indices · 28 October 2026
DAX and S&P 500 Test Resistance as Fed and ECB Decisions Loom
Both indices bounce off support but face overhead supply; Fed decision at 18:00 UTC today and ECB tomorrow set the tone for the week ahead.
Ultimo Research
Markets entered the new week with a relief bounce after oil eased back from six-month highs. The S&P 500 traded 7,731.50 by mid-session Monday, recovering from Friday's 0.52% drop to 7,623.64, while the DAX surged 1.07% to 25,531.87 as Brent crude slipped toward $110 on reports of diplomatic progress with Iran. Both indices remain inside multi-week ranges, however, and the rally faces an immediate test from monetary policy decisions and technology earnings due within the next 48 hours.
The technical picture shows neither index has broken its recent downtrend. The S&P 500 sits just above its 7,605 moving average but remains capped by resistance at 7,726 and 7,728, levels that coincide with a falling trendline from early October. The DAX has pushed to 25,618.66 intraday, testing the roof of a falling channel near 25,650 that has contained price since late August. Momentum indicators are neutral—relative strength on the S&P 500 stands at 45.22, below its signal line, while the DAX shows 51.21, marginally firmer but not yet confirming a trend change. Both indices posted their second consecutive weekly loss last week, and overhead supply remains thick until the structural pattern shifts.
What the calendar says
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 18:00 UTC today, 28 October 2026. Markets price better than 90% odds of a hold at 3.75–4.00%, but Chair Warsh's guidance on the December meeting will drive sentiment into the close. Technology earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet follow immediately after the statement, compounding volatility risk for both the S&P 500 and the DAX, which tracks US tech sentiment closely.
The European Central Bank decides at 12:15 UTC tomorrow, 29 October 2026. A hold is expected, but President Lagarde's tone on inflation and growth will move the DAX directly. US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation data land at 12:30 UTC the same day, 29 October, and a stronger-than-expected reading would lift December hike probabilities and pressure equities. Amazon reports after the US close Thursday, rounding out a week in which roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies publish results.
The Bank of Japan meets on 30 October 2026, though the time is not yet fixed. That decision matters primarily for the yen and flows into Asian equity markets, with second-order effects on the S&P 500 through risk sentiment.
For a complete list of data releases and central-bank meetings, see our economic calendar.
S&P 500: holding support but capped by the downtrend
The chart shows the S&P 500 at 7,731.50, just above the key 7,605 average that marks the lower edge of its rising channel. The index must clear 7,728 and then 7,750 to break the downtrend from early October; failure to do so keeps 7,620 and 7,500 in play as downside targets. The 200-period moving average sits near 7,350, a level not tested since July.
DAX: pressing channel resistance at 25,650
The DAX trades at 25,531.87 on the hourly timeframe, level with its 25,455 moving average and testing the upper boundary of a falling channel near 25,650. A close above that roof would target 26,200, but rejection here opens a move back to 25,280 and then 24,750. The index has been rangebound since August, and today's bounce has not yet shifted the daily structure.
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