DAX Clears 26,000 While S&P 500 Stalls Below Resistance

The DAX pushed through 26,000 for the first time in seven weeks on Wednesday, rising 1.38% to 26,059.74 after the European Central Bank held its benchmark rate at 2.50% and president Christine Lagarde confirmed she will leave office on 7 February 2027. The breakout came despite hawkish inflation warnings from the ECB, supported by strong earnings from Airbus and Siemens. In contrast, the S&P 500 traded 0.30% lower at 7,721.05 as Alphabet's earnings miss dragged the Nasdaq 1.28% lower, illustrating the breadth divergence that has marked this recovery. On 27 October, the S&P 500 advanced approximately 0.6% while a majority of its constituents declined—a capitalization-weighted illusion that makes the index appear healthier than the underlying market.

US data landed hawkish but in line with expectations: third-quarter GDP printed 3.4% against 3.2% forecast, September core PCE inflation held at 3.1% year-over-year, and jobless claims came in at 194,000. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, and December hike odds now sit near 83%. Microsoft's results after the bell provided some offset to Alphabet's weakness, but the index closed the week ending 25 October at 7,623.68, down 0.47%, with the weekly low finding support exactly at the twenty-week moving average near 7,611.

What the calendar says

The Bank of Japan policy decision is due today, 30 October 2026, time not yet fixed. The central bank is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 1.25%, but any guidance on a possible December hike will move the yen and risk appetite across Asian and European hours. The Outlook Report accompanying the decision adds weight to the event.

Looking further ahead, the Bank of England announces its rate decision and Monetary Policy Report on 5 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC, six days from now. Sterling has been sensitive to UK growth concerns, and any shift in the BoE's forward guidance will ripple through European equity flows.

The US jobs report—nonfarm payrolls—lands on 6 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC, next week. With the Federal Reserve's December hike odds already at 83%, a strong print would further reduce the chances of a pause, tightening financial conditions into year-end. The full economic calendar tracks these releases and their revisions.

S&P 500 technical picture

The chart shows the S&P 500 sitting at 7,658.78 as of the latest capture, inside a rising channel that stretches from late July with a floor near 7,480 and a ceiling around 7,990. The index recovered from the 23 October low at 7,612, but the rebound has not yet cleared the 21 October swing high at 7,770. Price now rests below the fast moving average at 7,737 and above the medium average at 7,698 and the slow average at 7,613. A daily close above 7,770 and subsequent acceptance would open a path toward 7,815 and the all-time-high region near 7,845. Conversely, a loss of 7,700 on a closing basis leaves the structure vulnerable to a retest of 7,675 and eventually the 7,612 swing low; a sustained break below that point would invalidate the near-term recovery.

DAX 40 technical picture

The DAX chart shows price at 26,028.75, having cleared the August record close of 26,569.99 from 28 August. The breakout from a falling channel that had contained price since late August places the index above all three moving averages: the fast at 25,368, the medium at 25,500 and the slow at 25,586, which cluster near the broken channel top. The RSI reads 61.74 against its average of 51.21, confirming positive momentum. A sustained close above 26,000 would target the mid-point to the August record near 26,350 and then the record itself. Support on any pullback sits in the 25,700–25,800 zone, with the broken channel top and moving averages providing a structural floor near 25,585. The weekly close at 25,181.65 on 25 October, down 1.72%, printed an outside week but held above the fifty-week average near 24,700.