Indices · 2 November 2026
DAX40 and S&P 500 Test Range Floors Ahead of Jobs and Elections
Both indices closed October near critical support after three weeks of selling, with midterm elections Tuesday and US payrolls Friday shaping the week.
Ultimo Research
The S&P 500 closed October at 7,580, down for a third consecutive week and now testing the 7,510–7,580 range floor that has contained price since September. The index fell as much as 1% last week after the Federal Reserve held rates but logged two dissenting votes for a hike. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 350 points on Friday alone, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2% across the week as disappointing capital expenditure guidance from Alphabet and Microsoft weighed on artificial intelligence-linked names. Sunday evening futures pointed to a modest rebound, with S&P contracts up 30 points and Nasdaq futures gaining close to 200 points.
The DAX 40 spent October climbing from the mid-25,000s to a record high near 26,140 before reversing sharply in the final days of the month. The German index now trades around 25,840, having retraced roughly half of October's rally. European bourses took their cue from Wall Street's tech sell-off, and renewed concerns over eurozone growth added to the pressure.
What the calendar says
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, 2026-11-05, with polls pointing to a Democratic sweep of both chambers. The outcome carries implications for fiscal policy and corporate tax rates, though historical patterns show equity markets tend to stabilise regardless of which party controls Congress.
The Bank of England announces its rate decision and publishes its Monetary Policy Report at 11:00 UTC on Thursday, 2026-11-05. A quarter-point hike is widely anticipated, and sterling volatility typically spills over into European equity markets through the export channel.
October nonfarm payrolls arrive at 12:30 UTC on Friday, 2026-11-06. Consensus looks for an increase of 55,000 jobs, a figure that will either validate or challenge the Fed's recent hawkish tilt. A stronger print could lift the dollar and pressure risk assets; a miss would reinforce expectations that rate hikes are done.
US inflation data for October follow on 2026-11-10 at 12:30 UTC, keeping the macro spotlight on price pressures into next week. A full overview of releases is on the economic calendar.
S&P 500 technical picture
The chart shows the S&P 500 at 7,621, sitting just above the weekly pivot at 7,622.50 that marked the low of Friday's bounce. The index has now spent 13 weeks inside the 7,508–7,845 range. Three consecutive lower weekly closes—7,659, 7,624 and 7,580—brought price down to the September low at 7,508, which defines the range floor alongside 7,510 and 7,580.
A weekly close below 7,500 would complete a range breakdown and open the June–July base between 7,295 and 7,380. Resistance stands at the range midpoint near 7,676, then at 7,670–7,674 where a two-month composite value area low and overlapping weekly levels converge. A clearance of 7,775 would target the all-time high at 7,845 and the 8,000 figure beyond.
DAX 40 technical picture
The chart shows the DAX at 25,840 after pulling back from the recent peak near 26,140. The index built a strong uptrend through most of October, advancing from support around 25,160 to the record high before the reversal. Price now sits midway between that high and the prior consolidation base.
Initial support lies at 25,760 and 25,690, levels that defined October's ascending structure. A breakdown there would bring the 25,400–25,160 zone back into view. On the topside, a reclaim of 26,000 would set up a retest of the 26,140 highs. The daily trend remains constructive, but momentum has clearly slowed after the late-month sell-off.
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