Equities rally on tech strength as October jobs print looms

The S&P 500 jumped 1.5% on Monday, closing at 7,764.70, as chipmakers surged on early signs of success for Meta Platforms Inc.'s AI agent. Treasury ten-year yields fell below 5% while Brent crude settled around $100, both retreating from recent highs. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4% on September 16, the first increase since 2023, and median projections point to one additional 25 basis point step before year-end.

European shares followed the same script. Germany's DAX 40 rose to 25,714 points on September 22, though the index remains down 1.50% over the past month. The DAX chart shows price oscillating in a range between roughly 25,600 on the downside and 26,100 resistance overhead, with the horizontal red line near 25,635 marking a key pivot. The index turned positive on Tuesday as oil prices retreated on reports of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, though ongoing tensions in the Gulf kept investors cautious.

What the calendar says

Next week brings the most consequential data point of the cycle. October 2, 2026, at 12:30 UTC, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September's US nonfarm payrolls report. The print is scheduled for October 2, 2026, and typically moves EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and gold. August's figure surprised to the upside at 162K jobs added, the most in five months and much higher than the 56K expected. A strong September print would reinforce the case for further Fed tightening; a miss would revive concerns about the economic impact of higher rates and elevated oil prices. No other scheduled releases appear on our economic calendar for the days immediately ahead.

S&P 500: Hour chart at all-time highs

Price rallied sharply from the September 17 low near 7,540 and now sits at 7,788.09 on the right edge, just below the all-time peak printed around 7,790. The index formed a clear higher low at approximately 7,600 on September 10, then again near 7,540 mid-month before launching the latest leg higher. The structure is impulsive, with minimal consolidation. Resistance at the 7,790 level caps the current move; support has shifted up to 7,720, then deeper at 7,650. Momentum remains strong, though the extension leaves little room for further advance without at least a pause.

DAX 40: Consolidation below 26,000

The index peaked at 26,364.30 on September 4, then sold off sharply to 25,237 by September 16, carving out a range bound by that low and resistance near 25,635 (the horizontal red line). Recent action has seen price test and reject the upper boundary multiple times, most recently on September 21 and 22. The pattern suggests distribution rather than accumulation: higher lows are absent, and each rally fades near the same level. A break above 25,700 would challenge the September high; a break of 25,200 would reopen the mid-September gap and shift the bias lower. Until one side gives way, the hourly chart argues for continued chop within the established range.