Forex · 9 November 2026
EUR/USD Below 1.12 as US CPI Looms and Dollar Holds
The pair trades near its red-line support at 1.1167 after a sharp slide from late October, with Tuesday's inflation print and ECB rate bets in focus.
Ultimo Research
EUR/USD closed the first week of November around 1.1140 after spending much of a month ranging around 1.1200. The euro fell nearly 0.7% in the final Friday session as US non-farm payrolls data revived expectations of a more hawkish Fed, pulling the pair back from Wednesday's high near 1.1273. The euro extended losses, falling below $1.115 and approaching its weakest level in several months, as the stronger-than-expected jobs report lifted the dollar.
The broader picture shows two central banks with diverging outlooks that are now both leaning hawkish. Eurozone inflation rose to a three-year high of 4% in October, driven by higher energy costs, lifting the case for tightening. Although the ECB kept rates unchanged in October, several policymakers—including the heads of the German and Italian central banks—have indicated that a December increase may be likely. Money markets are currently pricing in two rate hikes by mid-2027, with the first potentially coming as early as December, though financial markets are pricing in roughly an 80% chance that Lagarde & co will go for a 25 basis point hike in December.
On the US side, headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year in September 2026, up from 3.4% in August, with the monthly gain reaching 0.6% largely due to a 9.1% surge in gasoline prices. The Federal Reserve sits at 3.75–4.00%, compared with an ECB deposit rate of 2.50%—still a wide spread that favours the dollar unless it narrows quickly.
What the calendar says
All attention turns to 2026-11-10 12:30 UTC (that is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, November 10, not the 11th), when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October Consumer Price Index. Forecasters expect a smaller monthly rise than September's, with RBC Economics expecting 0.3% and the Cleveland Fed's nowcast putting it at 0.24%, with both headline and core inflation expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month in October. Economists forecast annual headline inflation at 3.6%, slightly below the previous 3.7%, while core inflation is expected to stay steady at 0.3% monthly and 2.6–2.7% annually.
One technical quirk matters: BLS could not collect prices in October 2025 during the government shutdown, so it has no October 2025 index for most items and says it will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 where that value is missing, which includes overall and core prices. Markets will trade the month-on-month figures instead. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the US dollar and reduce hopes for easier monetary policy, putting additional pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets—and the same logic applies to EUR/USD.
No other scheduled macro events on the economic calendar move EUR/USD in the coming week.
Technical picture: support at risk, resistance stacked above
The 1-hour chart captures a dramatic round-trip. Price surged from 1.1200 in late October to a peak near 1.1273 on 4 November before reversing sharply. The horizontal red line at 1.1167 marks major support—the pair touched it in late October, bounced hard, then came all the way back down after payrolls.
As of the right-hand edge, candles sit just above that 1.1167 floor, with repeated wicks showing sellers testing but not yet breaking it. Immediate resistance clusters between 1.1200 and 1.1230, a zone the market fought over throughout the final week. The main support level is located at 1.1104, while the nearest resistance and key trigger is 1.1269—roughly matching the chart's recent high.
A break and hourly close below 1.1167 would expose the next downside levels near 1.1115 and then 1.1104. On the topside, a sustained push through 1.1230 followed by 1.1269 would signal renewed bullish intent and bring 1.1314 and 1.1370 into view.
Our in-house hourly technical signal engine reads EUR/USD Buy, reflecting the setup near support, but Tuesday's CPI will have the final say on whether that level holds or gives way. Watch price action into and after 12:30 UTC—the first thirty minutes often set the tone for the rest of the session.
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