Forex · 14 September 2026
EUR/USD Caught Below 1.16 as Three Central Banks Meet This Week
Euro testing support near 1.15 with Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions looming; rate-hike odds rising across all three central banks.
Ultimo Research
EUR/USD has dropped to 1.16, the lowest level since August, as the dollar has been supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week following hotter-than-expected US core inflation data. The pair shed ground through the first half of September after US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162 thousand in August, well above consensus. The move lower has been punctuated by brief rallies tied to broad dollar weakness amid fresh US-Iran strikes, though those gains have so far proven short-lived.
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, warning that inflation is likely to remain well above its 2% target for an extended period. That backdrop leaves EUR/USD in a consolidation pattern ahead of this week's cascade of decisions, with the technical picture showing a series of lower highs and the pair testing critical support.
What the calendar says
Three of the world's major central banks report within 72 hours, each with the potential to reset policy expectations and shuffle the currency deck. The schedule is published on our economic calendar.
On 16 September at 18:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve announces its decision and releases the Summary of Economic Projections. Traders using the CME's FedWatch tool put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September 16 meeting at nearly 56%. The current target range is 3.5% – 3.75%, held at the July meeting on a 9–3 vote. The decision will carry immediate implications for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.
The Bank of England announces its decision on Thursday 17 September at 12:00 UK time (11:00 UTC), with the current UK interest rate at 3.75% after a 6–3 vote at the July meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee held at 3.75% on 30 July, voting 6-3, with Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann voting to increase it to 4%. The decision will move GBP/USD and cable crosses.
All 52 BOJ watchers forecast borrowing costs will be raised at the end of a two-day meeting on Sept. 18, with BOJ officials set to mull an increase in the policy rate from 1%. Swap contracts show a roughly 97% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing costs at the meeting. The decision date is confirmed as 18 September though no fixed time is published. This matters most for USD/JPY.
EUR/USD: testing the lows
The hourly chart shows EUR/USD in a clear downtrend from early September peaks near 1.1635 down to the current level around 1.1545. The pair has painted a series of lower highs and lower lows, breaking below support at 1.1605 on the payrolls print and extending losses toward 1.1565 in recent sessions.
Resistance now sits at 1.1600 to 1.1605, with the 1.1565 to 1.1575 zone acting as immediate support. A break below that level would open the path toward 1.1545 and potentially 1.1500 if dollar strength persists through the Fed meeting. On the upside, a reclaim of 1.1620 would be required to shift the near-term structure, with 1.1685 marking the next resistance if bulls regain control.
The in-house signal engine holds a Sell reading on EUR/USD, consistent with the downward momentum visible on the chart. Price action through Wednesday's Fed decision will dictate whether this move extends or reverses into month-end.
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