Forex · 2 November 2026
EUR/USD Holds 1.1180 as US Jobs Report and Election Loom Large
The euro trades near **1.1180** after Eurozone GDP beat forecasts, while markets brace for Friday's US employment data and Tuesday's midterm vote.
Ultimo Research
EUR/USD steadied around 1.1180 on Monday after stronger-than-expected Eurozone economic data provided modest support. The region's GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, double the 0.2% consensus and a sign of resilience despite elevated energy costs and geopolitical strains. German GDP grew 0.2%, also above the 0.1% forecast. The data offset some of the pressure from Friday's selloff, which had sent the pair down to 1.1105 before a late recovery closed the week at 1.1158.
That tentative bounce remains fragile. Fitch revised France's outlook to negative from stable, citing worsening fiscal conditions and political risks that threaten debt stabilization. The warning underscores vulnerabilities within the single currency bloc and keeps a lid on euro gains even as the growth numbers surprise to the upside. Americans vote on Tuesday in midterm elections widely expected to deliver Democratic control of both the House and Senate, an outcome that could shift fiscal and regulatory expectations and inject fresh volatility into dollar pairs.
What the calendar says
The week's marquee release arrives on Friday 6 November at 12:30 UTC, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes US nonfarm payrolls alongside the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The employment report will set the tone for Federal Reserve policy expectations and has historically moved EUR/USD by dozens of pips within minutes of the print. A stronger-than-forecast jobs number would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, potentially lifting the dollar and pressing the pair lower. A miss would do the opposite, opening room for euro strength if the divergence between ECB and Fed policy paths narrows.
Looking further out, US inflation data in the form of the consumer price index is scheduled for Tuesday 10 November at 12:30 UTC. While beyond the immediate week, CPI will matter for both central banks and is worth noting for traders managing positions into next week. Both the Fed and the ECB held rates steady last week, leaving data dependence as the primary driver of policy signals. The economic calendar shows no other tier-one events before Friday's jobs report.
Technical picture
The chart shows EUR/USD attempting to stabilise after Friday's sharp reversal. Price reached 1.1214 early in the session before sellers reasserted control, pushing the pair back toward 1.1180. The immediate resistance zone sits at 1.1195 to 1.1210, aligned with the Bollinger middle band and intraday highs. A sustained move above that area would open 1.1260 to 1.1280, the upper band and the lid of the five-week consolidation range that has contained price action since early October.
Support is layered below current levels. The 1.1150 handle provided a floor on Friday's wick to 1.1105, and a break beneath that base would expose 1.1100 and then the October low at 1.1040. The broader structure remains bearish, with lower highs since January tracing a downtrend from 1.2083 to 1.1712. Price sits well below the 100-day moving average near 1.1425, which would require a significant shift in momentum to reclaim. Until a weekly close prints above 1.1280, the bias favours range-bound trade with a downside skew.
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