EUR/USD Holds Range as ECB, CPI and FOMC Loom

EUR/USD held just above 1.16 on Friday as traders positioned for a gauntlet of central bank meetings and inflation data capable of reshaping expectations for the rest of the year. US inflation slowed to 3.4% in July, but eurozone inflation came in at 3.3% year-on-year in August, its highest since September 2023 and above the ECB's 2% target, driven largely by energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. Money markets continue to fully price in a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike to 2.5% next week, though the outcome remains a live call. Markets assign a 58.4% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike during the September meeting, with a 41.6% chance of no change.

What the calendar says

The next 48 hours bring two of the most widely watched macro events for foreign exchange. The European Central Bank announces its rate decision on 2026-09-10 at 12:15 UTC—two days from now—followed by President Lagarde's press conference, with EUR/USD volatility almost certain to spike around the decision. One day later, on 2026-09-11 at 12:30 UTC, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the US CPI report, a release that moves EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD across the board.

Next week delivers three further central bank decisions. The FOMC announces its interest rate decision on 2026-09-16 at 18:00 UTC, with the Summary of Economic Projections, capable of moving every dollar pair and risk asset. The Bank of England follows on 2026-09-17 at 11:00 UTC, directly impacting GBP/USD. The Bank of Japan concludes the round on 2026-09-18(time not yet fixed), with implications for USD/JPY. The full schedule sits on our economic calendar.

EUR/USD: range-bound into the decision

The hourly chart shows EUR/USD trading at 1.16139 as of the most recent candle on September 8. The pair has oscillated within a well-defined range over the past two weeks, carving out resistance near 1.167 in late August and support near 1.158 in early September. A horizontal zone around 1.161 has attracted price repeatedly since late August, acting as a pivot. The trend structure remains neutral on the hourly timeframe, with neither bulls nor bears able to sustain directional momentum beyond short-lived thrusts.

Key levels to watch: resistance sits at 1.167 (the early September highs), then 1.170 (the peaks seen in late August). On the downside, support lies at *1.158 (the early September lows), with a break below that level opening a path toward 1.155. The pair's position near the middle of its recent range suggests that the ECB decision and CPI print will dictate the next meaningful leg.