Forex · 22 September 2026
EUR/USD Pressured at 1.1460 as Fed Hike and NFP Loom
Euro trades near its lowest since late July; US jobs report on October 2 will test the Fed's hawkish tilt and the 1.1450 floor.
Ultimo Research
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, its first increase since 2023, and signalled another hike later this year. The euro traded at 1.1460 against the dollar on September 18, down sharply from early-month levels near 1.16, as the Fed's hawkish turn and stronger-than-expected August payrolls—162,000 versus a consensus of 56,000—reinforced the dollar's grip. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% in September, but the rate differential between the two central banks sits at approximately 162 basis points, leaving the euro vulnerable even as eurozone inflation runs hot.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD fell sharply from the 1.1600 area and approached the lower Bollinger Band, testing an ascending trendline around 1.1450 to 1.1470. The technical advantage remains with sellers, though the 1.1450 area requires a confirmed break before new short positions are opened, as the pair is trading directly above important trend support and is simultaneously in oversold territory. A consolidation below 1.1450 would confirm a break of the ascending trendline and create conditions for a continued decline towards the July lows.
Continued tensions in the Middle East support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, while the European currency remains vulnerable amid concerns about increasing geopolitical pressure on Europe. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh estimated that August headline PCE inflation was running near 3.6%, citing core PCE near 3.2%, well above the central bank's 2% target. Updated projections show 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one further rise before the end of the year.
What the calendar says
The next nonfarm payrolls release is scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (12:30 UTC), covering September 2026. The report will be the first major labour-market reading since the Fed's September hike and will influence expectations for the next FOMC decision later in October. Strong payrolls would cement the case for another rate increase; a soft print could slow the Fed's tightening path and ease pressure on dollar-funded carry positions. The release moves EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and gold. The full schedule sits on our economic calendar.
EUR/USD: technical picture
The pair peaked near 1.1650 in early September before staging a steady decline that accelerated mid-month. Support at 1.1460 to 1.1470 now defines the immediate floor; a break below would expose the 1.1365 downside target referenced in recent technical commentary. Resistance sits at 1.1545, the level below which the decline remains intact, with stronger resistance clustering near 1.1600 to 1.1635. Our in-house signal engine reads EUR/USD Sell, consistent with the bearish price structure, though the proximity to trend support warrants caution on fresh short entries without confirmation.
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