Forex · 30 October 2026
EUR/USD Rebounds as Dollar Softens Ahead of Jobs Report
The euro has gained ground near **1.1190** as falling Treasury yields weigh on the dollar, but technical signals remain mixed with key tests ahead.
Ultimo Research
EUR/USD has stabilised near 1.1190 after testing support at 1.1113 earlier in October, posting a recovery of roughly 0.7% from those lows. The bounce follows a sharp decline from 1.1250 that had pushed the pair through the 50% retracement of the January 2025 to January 2026 rally at 1.1130. Falling US Treasury yields have undermined the dollar despite third-quarter GDP growth accelerating to 3.4% annualised, as quarterly core inflation eased to 2.5% from 3.3% and real consumer spending stalled in September.
The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% last week, maintaining the September increase of 25 basis points. Policymakers acknowledged that rising energy prices posed upside risks to inflation but noted that underlying inflation and wages remained broadly stable. The statement carried a hawkish undertone, with President Lagarde confirming that an immediate hike had been discussed before officials opted to wait for further data. Markets now price around a 67% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December, slightly faster than expectations for the Federal Reserve over the same period.
Record bearish positioning in euro futures has raised the prospect of a short squeeze if data or central bank rhetoric shifts. Real disposable income in the US fell 0.3% month-on-month in September, suggesting households entered the fourth quarter with less spending power despite the headline growth figures. This combination of softer domestic demand and persistent inflation leaves both central banks navigating a narrow path, with relative bond yields likely to drive near-term moves in the pair.
What the calendar says
The next major scheduled event for EUR/USD arrives on 6 November at 12:30 UTC, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the US nonfarm payrolls report. Employment data has consistently moved the pair, and any surprise in hiring or wage growth will feed directly into Federal Reserve rate expectations. A strong print would reinforce the case for further tightening and support the dollar, while a softer outcome could extend the recent squeeze on bearish euro positions. The economic calendar shows no other major releases between now and that date, leaving the pair sensitive to risk sentiment and central bank commentary in the interim.
Technical picture
The chart shows EUR/USD trading just below 1.1200, where the middle Bollinger Band and minor downtrend resistance converge. The pair has held above 1.1135, the lower band, but remains beneath the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1432. A descending triangle is forming, with a series of lower highs pressing down toward support around 1.1113. The 14-period relative strength index sits near 41, suggesting weak recovery momentum despite the recent stabilisation.
Immediate resistance lies at 1.1200, followed by the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1265 and the June low at 1.1325. Below current levels, 1.1113 marks the October low, with 1.1065—the May 2025 swing low—next in view. A break beneath that zone would open the path toward 1.0900, a gravitational level the pair has revisited repeatedly. The price action remains heavy, and momentum indicators are rolling back toward oversold territory without yet confirming a sustained turn.
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