Forex · 6 November 2026
EUR/USD Retreats After Election Rally as Jobs Data Looms
Euro gives back post-election gains ahead of October payrolls; ECB hawk talk and US CPI in focus through next week.
Ultimo Research
The euro extended gains to $1.125 earlier this week as an unexpected Democratic sweep of Congress weighed on the dollar, but the rally stalled. The pair failed to hold above resistance at 1.1243–1.1230 yesterday, falling back during the European and US sessions, and today trades below 1.1200 in the European morning. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October, its highest since September 2023, driven by an energy-cost surge, yet the political shock in Washington initially overwhelmed rate-divergence fundamentals.
The single currency has drawn support from increasingly hawkish ECB rhetoric; despite last week's decision to leave rates unchanged, officials signaled further increases may be necessary to contain inflationary pressures and prevent them feeding through into wages. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel hinted he will support another rate hike in December, joining policymakers from Italy, Austria and Estonia. That contrasts with market expectations that the ECB has wrapped up its cutting cycle, barring unforeseen shocks, leaving the bar for further tightening high.
What the calendar says
2026-11-06 at 12:30 UTC – US nonfarm payrolls for October land today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% and payrolls to rise by 65,000 following the 29,000 increase in September. A robust print would reinforce the dollar's defensive posture and challenge the euro's attempt to reclaim the 1.1200 handle; a miss would reopen the door to a test of this week's highs near /markets/eur-usd 1.1270.
2026-11-10 at 12:30 UTC – US CPI inflation for October arrives in four days, the main inflation print of the month for the dollar side of the pair. The employment report features payrolls, wage inflation and unemployment-rate figures and could ramp up market volatility, but the CPI release will matter at least as much for December Fed expectations. Both events are marked on our /tools/economic-calendar.
Technical picture: downtrend intact, resistance holds
The chart shows /markets/eur-usd in a downtrend since late October, when the pair peaked near 1.12700. Price is approaching the first target around 1.1173; if the euro pierces this level it may reach the next target around 1.1104. A horizontal line at 1.11856 has capped three separate rallies since mid-October and defines trend resistance; the chart confirms sellers continue to defend this zone.
The recent spike to 1.12650 on November 5 was rejected intraday, leaving a long upper wick and reinforcing the narrow range of the past three weeks between support at 1.1111 and resistance at 1.1270. Our in-house hourly signal engine currently reads Sell. A break below 1.1111 would open air toward 1.1100 and mark a fresh multi-week low; conversely, a close above 1.1270 would shift attention to 1.1310 and signal that the post-election bounce has legs. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower into today's payrolls print.
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