Forex · 10 November 2026
EUR/USD Steadies Near 1.1240 Ahead of Crucial US Inflation Print
The euro hovers just below the 1.1240 resistance with October CPI due this afternoon to shape December Fed expectations.
Ultimo Research
The pair rose to 1.1224 on November 9, 2026, up 0.65% from the previous session, pushing above the 1.1200 level after a choppy week. The euro extended losses last week, falling below $1.115 as a stronger-than-expected US jobs report lifted the dollar and safe-haven demand emerged amid a global technology selloff. Yet the recovery since then has been swift. Eurozone inflation rose to a three-year high of 4% in October, driven by higher energy costs, adding to the case for further monetary tightening. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the ECB was monitoring incoming data to determine whether a rate hike would be warranted next month, and several policymakers, including the heads of the German and Italian central banks, have indicated that a December increase may be likely.
Against that hawkish backdrop sits mounting caution about the dollar and the Federal Reserve's December meeting. US annual inflation accelerated to 3.7% in September 2026, driven by higher energy prices, and on a monthly basis the CPI went up 0.6%, marking its largest gain in five months. Markets now await confirmation that price pressures have moderated.
What the calendar says
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October CPI today, 2026-11-10 at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM Eastern Time). Consensus forecasts headline CPI at +0.3% month-over-month and core CPI to slow slightly to +0.2% month-over-month, down from September's 0.6% and 0.3% readings, respectively. No year-over-year figures will be published for October, as the 2025 government shutdown left the corresponding comparison data unavailable, placing greater emphasis on monthly price changes.
The report is viewed as the last major CPI before the December Fed interest rate decision; a softer-than-expected or in-line print, particularly on core CPI, is seen as possible modest relief that might slightly cut hike odds, while an upward reading, especially when core is sticky, would solidify tightening expectations, boost yields and the dollar. The calendar lists no additional scheduled events for the pair in the days immediately following.
Technical picture
The chart shows EUR/USD trading just below the horizontal resistance drawn at approximately 1.1240, a level tested multiple times in late October and early November. The pair briefly spiked to 1.1272 on November 4 before retreating, confirming the ceiling remains intact. Support clusters around 1.1170 to 1.1180, with the October lows near 1.1110 sitting as the deeper demand zone.
A decisive break above 1.1240 would clear the path toward 1.1270 and then 1.1310. Conversely, a close back below 1.1180 would likely reopen 1.1110, and a failure of that floor would bring 1.1050 into view. Price has formed a sequence of higher lows since November 6, suggesting constructive momentum, but volatility around this afternoon's CPI may render short-term patterns obsolete within minutes. The economic calendar remains light afterward, leaving today's print as the week's pivotal event.
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