Forex · 19 October 2026
EUR/USD Tests Support as Fed and ECB Decisions Loom
Euro slides to 52-week low before bouncing; Fed decision October 28, ECB October 29 to set next direction for majors, gold and crypto.
Ultimo Research
The euro closed the week at 1.1239 against the dollar, up 0.3% but only after printing a fresh 52-week low of 1.1113 on Wednesday following September's US inflation report. Consumer prices rose 3.7% year-on-year, core CPI reached 2.6%, and the data pushed Treasury yields near 5.10% while Fed fund futures priced a 52% chance of a rate hike at the October meeting, up from roughly 22% beforehand. The dollar index slipped to about 101.6 by Friday, but the week's volatility underscored how sensitive EUR/USD remains to every inflation and policy signal.
Oil added to the drama. Brent crude touched $110 on Friday for the first time since May and settled at $109.69, up 4.7% on the week, as Iran escalated attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi missiles targeted Saudi Arabia. The energy shock revived inflation fears and weighed on risk assets: the Nasdaq lost about 4%, its worst week since June, and the VIX jumped to around 20. Gold fell 0.7% to $4,186.70, silver dropped 6.4% to $57.14, and Ethereum slipped 2.4% to $2,429, while Bitcoin held flat at $82,650.
What the calendar says
Two central bank decisions dominate the week ahead. On 2026-10-28 at 18:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. Markets have priced about a 52% probability of a hike; the outcome will move EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD. The following day, 2026-10-29 at 12:15 UTC, the European Central Bank announces its rate decision, which will set the euro's next direction. Flash PMIs for the US, eurozone and UK land on Friday, along with US PCE inflation on October 29. The full schedule is on our economic calendar.
EUR/USD: bouncing from support
The chart shows EUR/USD trading near 1.1210, just above the horizontal support at 1.1207 that has capped the pair since early October. Wednesday's low at 1.1113 marks the 52-week floor, while resistance sits at 1.1269 and 1.1340. The pair is consolidating around its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages near 1.1200, a sign of indecision. Our signal engine reads Strong Sell. The October 28 Fed decision and October 29 ECB announcement are the next tests; a break below 1.1113 would target 1.1050, while a daily close above 1.1269 would cancel the bearish scenario.
Gold and crypto: waiting for direction
Gold sits at $4,186.70, holding near its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages around $4,180. Treasury yields above 5% and rising Fed hike odds continue to cap the metal despite geopolitical support. Resistance stands at $4,222 and $4,300, with support at $4,100 and $4,069. Bitcoin traded between $79,842 and $84,324 during the week and now hovers near $82,650, just below its moving averages around $81,750–82,600. A daily close below $79,800 would open the way to the mid-$70,000s. Ethereum's 2.4% weekly loss left it below its moving averages; a move back above $2,580 is needed to cancel the bearish tone, while a loss of $2,326 would put $2,200 in focus.
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