Forex · 13 November 2026
EUR/USD Under **1.11** After Inflation Shock Revives Fed Hike Bets
The euro has hit fresh eighteen-month lows as hotter US inflation fuels expectations of a December Fed hike, overshadowing ECB tightening talk.
Ultimo Research
EUR/USD rose to 1.1058 on 13 November, attempting to stabilise after a three-day slide drove the pair to its lowest level since May 2025. The euro slid below $1.11 and touched its weakest point since March 2025, as the dollar remained supported by growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening in December. Markets continued to digest hotter-than-expected US inflation data, which strengthened expectations of another Fed rate increase next month and raised the prospect of a more aggressive 50bp hike. Headline consumer prices rose 0.4% month over month in October, above the 0.3% consensus forecast, while core prices increased 0.3%, versus expectations for 0.2%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December meeting.
In Europe, persistent political and fiscal uncertainty in France, coupled with concerns over a weakening growth outlook and speculation surrounding the succession to the ECB presidency, further weighed on sentiment. The European Central Bank left its key deposit rate unchanged at 2.5% on Thursday, at a meeting overshadowed by President Christine Lagarde's announcement that she will leave her post next February; the pause comes as inflation runs at 3.8%, almost double the ECB's 2% target. The Fed's range is 3.75% to 4.00%, so the dollar still pays well over a point more.
What the calendar says
The week ahead features three critical releases for EUR/USD. November's first tests are euro area flash HICP on 4 November and US payrolls on 6 November, followed by US CPI on 10 November. The HICP window has passed; attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve's December meeting on 17 December Dec. 17, 2026, which will clarify the pace of further dollar tightening. On Wednesday 25 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US GDP and PCE, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge landing with GDP in the same release window. No further ECB decision is scheduled until the December 17 meeting. Traders can track fresh releases on the economic calendar.
Technical picture: sideways structure breached
The chart shows EUR/USD in a clear downtrend channel from late October, with the pair breaking decisively below the 1.1115–1.1261 consolidation zone. Price touched a session low near 1.1066 on 12 November, the lowest print since spring 2025, before a modest bounce. The 1.1067 level—marked by the red horizontal line—has emerged as a key floor; a sustained break would expose psychological 1.1000 and then 1.0986. On the upside, the zone between 1.1100 and 1.1115 now flips to resistance, with any recovery capped by 1.1200 and the 26 October swing high near 1.1223. Momentum indicators remain tilted down, though short-term oversold conditions may allow a corrective bounce toward 1.1150 before sellers reassert control. Our in-house signal engine registers a Sell, reflecting the broader bearish structure.
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