Forex · 3 November 2026
Euro Consolidates Near 1.12 as Markets Eye Friday's US Jobs Report
EUR/USD holds a narrow range below 1.12 ahead of US midterm elections and Friday's nonfarm payrolls, with crude oil relief offsetting dollar support.
Ultimo Research
The euro traded just below 1.1200 during Tuesday's Asian session after pulling back from 1.1235, its highest level in over a week. The pair found support near 1.1150 on Monday before rebounding, but gains stalled as traders positioned cautiously ahead of the US midterm elections and a packed week of data. The dollar drew support from Monday's manufacturing survey, which rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, marking ten consecutive months of expansion. Markets are pricing a better than 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December, keeping the greenback underpinned despite hopes for progress in US-Iran diplomacy.
Lower crude oil prices offered some relief to the euro zone, a net energy importer. West Texas Intermediate fell 7.4% to around $96.46 per barrel as President Trump signalled more time for diplomacy with Iran, though several days of negotiations between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators failed to produce a major breakthrough. Friday's data showed the euro zone economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, beating the 0.2% forecast, while German GDP rose 0.2%, also above the 0.1% consensus. However, credit agency Fitch revised France's outlook to negative from stable on Friday, warning that worsening fiscal conditions and political risks are undermining debt stabilisation prospects.
What the calendar says
The week's main event arrives Friday, 6 November at 12:30 UTC, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October nonfarm payrolls report. Expectations sit at 65,000 new jobs, a sharp drop from prior months that would feed directly into whether the Federal Reserve follows through with another rate increase after holding on 28 October. The services sector survey lands Wednesday at 15:00 UTC, with forecasts at 54.8 after 54.9, offering an interim read on the domestic economy. Euro zone inflation data is due Wednesday at 10:00 GMT, with the headline rate expected at 3.9% after 3.8% and the core rate forecast steady at 2.5%, feeding the European Central Bank's December decision on its 2.50% deposit rate. Looking further ahead, US consumer price inflation is scheduled for 10 November at 12:30 UTC, though that sits beyond this week's trading horizon. The economic calendar shows these releases as the key drivers for rate expectations and the dollar's trajectory.
Technical picture
The chart shows EUR/USD holding beneath the 200-period simple moving average at 1.1267, maintaining a near-term negative bias after the decline from late August highs above 1.1700. The pair has traded between just above 1.1100 and short of 1.1300 since early October, forming a bearish consolidation phase. A convincing break below range support near 1.1100 would reaffirm the bearish outlook and open the door for deeper losses, while reclaiming the 200-period average would be needed to alleviate downside pressure. On the daily timeframe, the pair remains anchored below the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1425 and the Bollinger middle band at 1.1195, keeping the bearish structure intact. Immediate resistance aligns with 1.1195, then the upper Bollinger band near 1.1260, while support sits at the lower band around 1.1130. The relative strength index around 40 suggests weak but stabilising momentum rather than oversold conditions.
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