Metals · 23 September 2026
Gold Bleeds Seven Percent Amid Fed Hikes, NFP Looms Next Week
Gold has fallen from September highs near $4,500 as the Fed raised rates by 25bp and signalled more to come; payrolls data October 2 will shape the path.
Ultimo Research
Gold fell to 4,307.63 USD per ounce on September 22, 2026, down 0.81% from the previous day. Over the past month, gold's price has fallen 7.40%, but it remains 14.44% higher than a year ago. The rout began after the Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026 as expected, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Higher rates generally make the metal less attractive to investors as it doesn't pay interest.
The September decision carried a hawkish edge. The updated dot plot showed the median official projecting a year-end 2026 fed funds rate of 4.1%, up from June's 3.8% and implying one additional hike by December. The 2027 median jumped to 4.1% from 3.6% in June, wiping out the rate cuts officials had penciled in for next year and implying the funds rate stays at its 2026 peak through the whole of 2027. Yet gold also remains supported by longer-term factors, including continued central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over fiscal sustainability and currency debasement. According to the World Gold Council, physically backed gold ETFs attracted 18 billion USD in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record.
What the calendar says
The single most important event on the economic calendar next week is October 2, 2026 at 12:30 UTC — the US nonfarm payrolls report for September, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The next US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is scheduled for Oct 2, 2026 at 12:30 UTC with consensus forecast 120K, previous 162K. The report will move EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and gold by influencing market expectations for the Fed's path.
The BLS reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in August 2026, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, average hourly earnings were $37.75, and the labor-force participation rate was 61.6%. A weaker-than-forecast 120K print would ease pressure on gold by reducing the probability of further Fed tightening; a strong beat would give the dollar and real yields another leg higher and pressure bullion further.
Gold: technical picture on the hour
The XAU/USD chart shows a steady bleed from the early-September peak near 4,507 down to a recent low around 4,262 mid-month, then sideways chop in the 4,300-4,400 zone. The most recent close sits near 4,321. A break and hold above 4,400 would reopen the path toward 4,463, the level where consolidation above would indicate increased buying pressure and a weakening of the current downward structure. On the downside, a loss of 4,262 exposes the 4,174-4,233 zone and could accelerate selling if the jobs report surprises hawkish and reinforces the case for more Fed hikes.
Our in-house hourly technical signal engine currently reads XAU/USD Strong Sell, consistent with the recent downtrend and the weight of Fed policy tightening. The one-hour structure remains fragile; rebounds have stalled repeatedly below the 4,400 handle, and the path of least resistance stays lower unless payrolls disappoint expectations sharply enough to shift rate pricing.
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