Metals · 19 October 2026
Gold Holds $4,160 as Fed and ECB Decisions Loom
Gold trades near $4,163 after a volatile week; Fed decision Oct 28 and ECB Oct 29 will set the tone for dollar, euro and precious metals.
Ultimo Research
Gold closed last week near $4,186.70, down 0.7%, after a turbulent five sessions that saw the metal drop 1.7% to $4,095 on Wednesday following hotter-than-expected US inflation data, then recover 1.7% the next day. The hourly chart shows the metal now trading around $4,163, testing a horizontal consolidation zone between $4,150 and $4,180 that has contained price action since mid-October. ultimosecurities.com reports that technical indicators shifted from moderately bullish at the start of the week to strongly bearish by Friday, with the score moving to -7 even as price gained 0.57% over the period. The conflicting signals—bearish indicators against modest price gains—point to a market caught between geopolitical support from escalating Middle East tensions and pressure from rising Treasury yields, which touched 5.10% last week.
The driver behind the Wednesday sell-off was clear: US consumer prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, up from 3.4% in August, while core CPI reached 2.6% and producer prices accelerated sharply, according to talkmarkets.com. Retail sales also beat forecasts. The data initially pushed Fed rate-hike odds for the October meeting to about 52%, though fxempire.com notes those odds have since faded to around 15% after Fed official Kevin Warsh's dovish remarks late in the week. CME FedWatch now shows an 83.9% probability of a hold at the October meeting, though a 92% chance of a hike in December remains priced in.
What the calendar says
The week ahead is dominated by two central bank decisions that will shape direction across currencies, gold and risk assets. On 2026-10-28 at 18:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. Markets currently assign an 84% chance of no change, but any shift in the statement or press conference language around inflation persistence and the December meeting will move EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD. Less than 24 hours later, on 2026-10-29 at 12:15 UTC, the European Central Bank delivers its rate decision, with direct implications for EUR/USD. The back-to-back schedule means any dovish surprise from the Fed could be amplified—or reversed—by the ECB the following day. A full list of the week's releases is available on our economic calendar.
Gold: testing support inside a bearish technical frame
The gold chart shows price consolidating between $4,150 and $4,180, with the current level at $4,163.83. roboforex.com identifies support at $4,069 and $4,044, with resistance at $4,222 and $4,372. The daily picture remains bearish: following a corrective wave that peaked near $4,696, the metal completed a downward impulse to the $4,069–$4,044 zone. Price is now sitting on its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $4,180, a sign of indecision. A sustained break below $4,095 would open the path toward $4,044 and potentially $4,027, while a recovery above $4,222 would be needed to neutralise the bearish structure. Treasury yields above 5% and the Fed decision on the 28th will determine whether demand returns or selling accelerates.
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