Metals · 21 September 2026
Gold Holds $4,350 After Fed Hike as PMI, ADP Data Loom
XAU/USD steadies near $4,350 following last week's Fed hike, with preliminary PMI and ADP data ahead this week.
Ultimo Research
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate increase on September 16, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, yet gold held above $4,300 per ounce and selling pressure weakened post-decision. Gold edged up to a one-week high of $4,380 on Friday, posting its first weekly gain in four weeks, even as a stronger dollar remained supported after the Fed signaled further hikes in the coming months. The metal remains bid as risk appetite soured amid growing concerns that the Middle East conflict involves the US and Iran exchanging attacks in the Persian Gulf, while the Houthis attacked the Arabian East-West Oil pipeline, forcing its shutdown.
The September Fed dot plot projected a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% at yearend 2026 and 2027, implying one-half point of total 2026 rate increases. Markets now price in a nearly 60% chance of another rate increase next month at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Despite the hawkish tilt, Brent crude fell for a third consecutive session as easing concerns over Saudi supply disruptions outweighed fears of a broader escalation in the Middle East, while gold rose toward $4,400 per ounce, supported by falling oil prices that eased inflation concerns and helped push bond yields lower.
What the calendar says
Monday, September 23 sees preliminary September manufacturing and services PMI data, key leading indicators of economic momentum that can shift Fed rate expectations. Wednesday, September 22 brings weekly ADP employment data, an early read on labour-market conditions ahead of the monthly payrolls print. Thursday, September 24 will release initial jobless claims and the Fed's balance sheet. Friday, September 25 delivers the University of Michigan's September inflation expectations data, a sentiment gauge the FOMC watches closely. The full schedule sits on our economic calendar.
XAU/USD: $4,339 inside a three-week range
The hourly chart shows gold at $4,345.73 on the September 21 timestamp, inside a range bounded by $4,262 (the post-FOMC low on September 16) and the $4,507 peak reached on September 3. Clearing $4,400 opens the path to $4,450 and the $4,500 psychological milestone, while a bearish resumption requires a drop below the 100-day Simple Moving Average at $4,320, then the 50-day SMA at $4,288, and the September 16 low at $4,235. The horizontal line at $4,354.60 on the screenshot marks the pivot for the current session. Our in-house signal engine reads Sell, reflecting the choppiness since the early-month high, though gold prices are expected to remain moderately volatile this week amid the release of ADP weekly employment data, preliminary September manufacturing and services PMI figures, the University of Michigan's September inflation expectations data, and other macroeconomic indicators.
US-China developments, Treasury yields, the dollar, crude oil and Fed rate expectations are likely to remain the principal drivers of gold's direction as traders digest whether the September hike marks a peak or the start of another tightening cycle.
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