Metals · 30 October 2026
Gold Holds Above $3,985 as US Jobs Report Looms on 6 November
XAU/USD trades near $3,985 after a 1.2% decline on strong GDP data, with the Federal Reserve holding rates and nonfarm payrolls due next week.
Ultimo Research
Gold closed near $3,985 on 29 October after falling 1.2% through the session, weighed by US GDP growth of 3.4% annualised in the third quarter and a core PCE price index reading of 3.1% year-on-year in September. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October in a 10–2 vote, with two members preferring a 25 basis point increase. The statement called activity strong and inflation elevated, six weeks after the committee's first hike since July 2023.
Oil has been the connective tissue behind both the rate outlook and the Treasury yield move. WTI settled near $102 and Brent at $114.88 on 29 October, slightly lower on US-Iran diplomacy hopes but still elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.0%, after climbing to 5.15% by 19 October. For a non-yielding asset, that represents a real cost of carry. December hike odds stood near 75% to 83% through the week, shifting as crude and growth data came in. The same oil shock that would normally lift safe-haven demand appears to be lifting rate expectations faster, leaving gold caught between two forces.
What the calendar says
The US nonfarm payrolls report prints on 6 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC, the first jobs data following a Fed decision that cited strong activity. The reading will inform December hike pricing and flows into the dollar and Treasuries, both of which move gold inversely. Employment strength would reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance and keep pressure on non-yielding assets, while any softness in hiring or wages could ease rate expectations and support a corrective bounce. Our economic calendar tracks the release in real time.
US CPI data follow on 10 November at 21:30 (time zone not confirmed in the diary), the inflation print that will shape the December rate debate. A reading at or above the 3.6% headline and 3.1% core pace seen in September would keep hike odds elevated and Treasury yields firm. Both events bear directly on the gold outlook for the week ahead.
Technical picture
The chart shows gold last quoted near $3,985, down sharply from the $4,080 wick earlier in the week. Price sits below the $4,013 20-period average, the $4,032 50-period average and the $4,023 200-period average. The 50-period line has traded below the 200-period since mid-September, a death cross configuration. The $4,070 to $4,080 zone capped the latest bounce and now acts as near-term resistance, a former floor tested from underneath.
Support rests at $3,973 and $3,997, with the $3,980 to $3,990 zone marking internal liquidity. RSI reads 32.6 on the hourly setup, no longer oversold but still below 50, and MACD sits at –10.3 beneath its signal line. Stochastic has recovered to 12.5, showing early relief from extremes but not yet a turn in momentum. The 15-minute chart confirms bearish control, with every moving average sloping down or flat and the latest rejection occurring at the $4,038 mid average. A sustained hold above $4,021 is required to stabilise the structure, while a break of $3,992 would expose the $3,969 to $3,980 demand block. The $4,047 slow average and the $4,053 lower supply edge define the first meaningful resistance above current levels.
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