Gold Holds Above $4,000 As Inflation Test Looms

Gold remained up more than 4% for the week, supported by safe-haven demand following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, though the metal fell toward $4,050 an ounce on Friday as the US dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%. Traders are pricing in an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, yet spot gold climbed 1.6% to $4,129.69 an ounce on Monday, even though traders now price roughly a 77-80% chance that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. Rising hike odds usually drag the gold price lower. This time bullion moved the other way.

The advance was supported by a weaker US dollar, which remained near a one-month low, while oil prices stayed below $100 a barrel, easing inflation concerns. Bullion surged more than 3% on Wednesday, its sharpest daily gain since August 19, benefiting from falling energy prices, lower Treasury yields and easing concerns over inflation and interest rates. The unexpected Democratic takeover of both the House and Senate also weighed on the dollar and yields, as it reduces the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration and may limit the risk of further escalation in the Iran war. Central banks added 61 tonnes of gold in September, the single largest monthly total of 2026 so far, led by Poland and China, providing structural support beneath the recent volatility.

What the calendar says

The calendar holds one high-impact release tomorrow at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET) on 2026-11-10: core CPI at 0.2%, keeping a December hike on track. With payrolls strong and headline inflation at 3.7%, it would take a core print of 0.1% or lower to shift the Fed. RBC Economics wrote on November 5: "we expect to see both headline and core inflation rose +0.3% m/m in October." Markets will scrutinise the monthly reading after the CPI went up 0.6% in September, marking its largest gain in five months, while annual core inflation rate went up to 2.6% from 2.4%, more than forecasts of 2.5%. That balance faces its first test with CPI on 10 November and a second with PPI on 13 November. The level analysts keep returning to is $4,000: a hot print threatens it, while a calm one supports the case for holding above it. The print arrives as economic data drive positioning across the gold complex.

Technical picture: reclaiming the $4,000 handle

The chart shows that price plunged from $4,186 on 19 October to a low near $3,870 on 30 October, then staged a sharp recovery that lifted bullion back above the psychologically important $4,000 level by 4 November. The rebound peaked near $4,150 on 5 November before Friday's payrolls data triggered a pullback to $4,095.

Resistance now clusters between $4,130 and $4,150, the intraday highs reached during Thursday's post-election rally. A decisive break above $4,150 would reopen the path toward $4,250, which may open the way for the $4,250 level. On the downside, initial support sits at $4,060, with stronger backing at $4,000—the round number that capped the September consolidation and now anchors the recent bounce. A close below $4,000 would shift attention back to $3,930 and the 30 October trough near $3,870. Momentum indicators reflect the week's whipsaw: the recent surge from $3,870 to $4,150 unfolded in just four trading sessions, leaving the hourly structure extended yet still holding above the reclaimed $4,000 floor as the inflation data looms.