Gold Holds Near $4,035 as Midterm Results and Jobs Data Loom

Gold traded near $4,035 on Tuesday after recovering from a one-year low at $3,870 reached last week. Early results from the US midterm elections showed Democrats retaining control of both chambers of Congress, a development that weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields in overnight trade. The softer greenback provided modest support for gold, though the metal remains under pressure from a hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop and elevated real yields. Volatility in oil markets—driven by conflicting reports on US-Iran negotiations and renewed military action—added to the cautious tone, with higher energy prices reinforcing inflationary concerns that keep rate expectations elevated.

The relief rally faces an immediate test at resistance around $3,975 to $4,000, where sellers defended gold during the late-October decline. A sustained move above that zone would ease near-term pressure and open the path toward $4,050, a level that aligns with the 20-day moving average and marks the threshold between consolidation and recovery. Below current levels, support sits at $3,912 to $3,928, a fair-value gap left during last week's sharp sell-off. A breakdown through $3,891 would signal renewed weakness and target the $3,870 low, where liquidity rests.

What the calendar says

The week ahead centres on two high-impact US releases that will shape gold's direction. On 2026-11-06 at 12:30 UTC, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October jobs report, with nonfarm payrolls expected to show job creation slowed to around 69,000 from 90,000 in September. A weaker-than-expected print would ease pressure on the Fed to tighten further, likely supporting gold through lower yields and a softer dollar. Conversely, a strong reading would reinforce the case for additional rate hikes, adding to headwinds for non-yielding assets.

Four days later, on 2026-11-10 at 12:30 UTC, October's CPI data will offer the next gauge of inflation momentum. With oil prices elevated by geopolitical risk, the energy component will attract particular scrutiny. A hotter-than-expected figure would cement expectations of a December rate increase—the CME FedWatch Tool currently prices a 75 per cent probability—and weigh on gold by lifting real yields. A cooler print would provide relief.

Technical outlook

The chart shows gold consolidating just above $4,035, having broken above the late-October swing high near $3,970 during Monday's session. That short-term change in structure suggests buyers are attempting to regain control after three weeks of losses. Resistance now clusters between $4,026 and $4,040, an order block that coincides with supply left during the initial sell-off. A clean break and successful retest of that zone would target $4,065 to $4,083, with $4,120 as the next upside objective if momentum accelerates.

On the downside, the $3,912 to $3,928 gap remains the first area of interest on any pullback. Below that, $3,891 to $3,906 marks deeper support; failure to hold that zone would shift attention back to the $3,870 low and raise the prospect of a deeper correction. The relative strength index sits at 34 on the daily timeframe, hovering just above oversold territory, while the MACD remains negative—both consistent with a market that is oversold in the short term but not yet showing confirmed bullish momentum.

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