Gold Hovers Near Year-Low as Dollar Eases; US Jobs Data Ahead

Gold is attempting a modest recovery in early Monday trade, changing hands around $3,900 per ounce after touching a twelve-month low near $3,870 on Friday. The yellow metal opened the week with a gap higher following weekend reports of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran, which has pulled crude oil back from its recent peak of $104 per barrel. Lower energy costs typically ease inflation pressures and reduce the urgency for central-bank tightening, a scenario that tends to support non-yielding assets. Yet the broader picture remains heavy, with Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations still firmly priced and the US dollar holding near 101.95 on the DXY index.

Sentiment around interest rates remains the dominant driver. Recent US data pointed to resilient economic activity and persistent price pressures, keeping December tightening firmly on the table at roughly a 75% probability. That backdrop has kept bullion under pressure throughout October, and Friday's break below the $4,000 psychological threshold marked a clear technical deterioration. Any rebound from current levels will need to contend with overhead resistance and the reality that real yields remain elevated.

Geopolitical developments are providing some short-term support. Iranian negotiators have been in talks with Qatari mediators for three consecutive days, and Tehran has floated a 48-hour plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief and a reduced US military presence in the region. Washington has signaled a preference for diplomacy, though further military action after the November 3 midterm elections has not been ruled out. This mix of cautious optimism and lingering uncertainty is keeping a modest risk premium in the market, but the effect on gold has been muted compared with the downward pull of rate expectations.

What the calendar says

The week's main event is the US nonfarm payrolls report on November 6 at 12:30 UTC, in four days. A strong labour print would reinforce the case for further Fed tightening and likely weigh on gold, while a softer outcome could ease rate pressure and provide near-term relief. Ahead of Friday's release, traders will be watching preliminary signals from JOLTS job openings and ISM surveys to gauge momentum in the labour market.

Looking further out, US inflation data in the form of the consumer price index is scheduled for November 10 at 12:30 UTC next week. Another upside surprise in headline or core measures would keep tightening expectations alive and sustain pressure on non-yielding assets.

Technical outlook

The chart shows a sustained downtrend from mid-October, with a clear sequence of lower highs near $4,200, $4,140 and $4,070. Friday's extension to $3,870 confirmed a fresh structural low on the four-hour timeframe, and Monday's gap opening near $3,896 has not yet altered the bearish tone. Price is currently rotating just above $3,900, but acceptance remains below the 100-period exponential moving average at $4,068, which now acts as near-term resistance.

Immediate support lies at Friday's low of $3,870, with deeper demand potentially emerging near $3,800 if that floor gives way. On the upside, reclaiming the $4,000 round figure and then the moving average at $4,068 would be the minimum requirement to ease the current bias. Momentum indicators are stretched, with the relative strength index in oversold territory near 29, but downside structure remains intact until those overhead levels are cleared with conviction.