Gold Pulls Back From Two-Week High as Jobs Data Looms

Gold climbed toward $4,150 on Thursday, reaching two-week highs as Democratic victories in the midterm elections strengthened hopes for an end to the US-Iran conflict and triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, while a weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields enhanced the metal's appeal. The rally measured about 7% from the 30 October one-year low near $3,875 before pausing at the 4-hour 200-period moving average. That advance reversed as Wall Street plunged on a technology-stock selloff, driving the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.82%, its lowest in two months.

Traders currently see a 79% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, though that figure has come down from earlier levels, now at 66% to 69%. At its 28 October meeting, the Fed left its interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% per annum, and investors will now focus on the Fed's rhetoric and incoming inflation and employment data. Central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3 2026, up 42% year on year, and gold ETFs took in 211 tonnes, while bar and coin demand fell 19% and jewellery dropped 17%.

What the calendar says

The US nonfarm payrolls report for October is due at 13:30 UTC on Friday 6 November, today. After the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, forecasts point to a modest recovery to around 65,000, with unemployment expected to stay at 4.2%. A figure much stronger than forecast would firm expectations for the December hike and typically lift the dollar, putting pressure on gold; a weak print would ease rate worries and remove one headwind.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for 10 November at 21:30 (GMT+8), or 12:30 UTC on 10 November — four days from now. That release will determine whether December hike odds remain elevated; another acceleration in inflation would keep the pressure on non-yielding assets, while softer readings would support the case for a pause.

Both events are listed on our economic calendar with full UTC times.

Technical picture

The hourly chart shows gold tested resistance at the red horizontal line near $4,063, exactly where price traded at the screenshot timestamp. Gold's rebound from the 30 October one-year low measured about 7% before pausing at the 4-hour 200-period moving average at $4,124.75. The rally topped out near $4,145 on 5 November, a level that now defines near-term resistance.

On the downside, if losses extend past $4,000, the next support is the 4 November daily low of $3,919, followed by the 30 October year-to-date low at $3,879. The chart marks a consolidation zone in the middle $4,000s after the sharp drop from mid-October highs. Our in-house signal engine reads Strong Sell, consistent with price sitting below the 200-period average and facing the twin headwinds of elevated rate-hike odds and tomorrow's payrolls volatility.

Whether gold holds above $4,000 or breaks back toward $3,900 depends on how tonight's jobs data lands relative to the 65,000 consensus and how the market interprets the implications for Fed policy in December.