Metals · 22 September 2026
Gold Slips Below $4,325 as Fed Hike Pressures Precious Metals
Gold trades near $4,323 on the hourly chart following the Federal Reserve's September rate hike, with next week's US jobs report set to shape direction.
Ultimo Research
Gold opened the week on the back foot, failing to reclaim the $4,400 level as the dollar consolidated gains from the Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, the first increase since 2023. Markets now price in a nearly 60% chance of another rate increase next month. The September 16 meeting delivered the first increase since 2023, snapping the easing cycle that had supported non-yielding assets through much of 2025.
Physically backed gold ETFs attracted $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record, and total ETF holdings rose by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes. Yet that structural bid has not prevented short-term pressure. Gold edged up to a one-week high of $4,380 on Friday, posting its first weekly gain in four weeks, as falling oil prices eased concerns over prolonged inflationary pressures, though gains were capped by a stronger dollar. The dollar index edged up to 100.3 on Monday, reaching its highest level in almost three months and extending last week's gain of nearly 1.1%, as the greenback continued to benefit from a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the central bank raising rates by 25 basis points last week and expected to deliver another hike by year-end.
What the calendar says
The week ahead is light on scheduled tier-one releases, but one fixture dominates: 2026-10-02 12:30 UTC brings the US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That print will shape policy expectations and is the primary mover for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and gold. The September 16 meeting delivered a 162,000 payrolls beat, retail sales up 1.2%, and firmer producer prices—numbers that enabled the Fed to tighten without fear of breaking the labour market. A repeat performance on October 2 would cement a second hike; a miss would reopen the door to a pause. Beyond that headline, the economic calendar is quiet in the days immediately ahead.
Gold (XAU/USD): hourly chart, 1 September – 22 September 2026
Price peaked near $4,507 in early September before reversing sharply. The instrument has since carved out a descending channel, with the most recent print around $4,323. Resistance sits at $4,430, the upper bound of the range that has contained price in recent sessions. On September 22, XAU/USD is expected to continue to consolidate within the $4,313.67 to $4,376.04 range. The low near $4,262 on 13 September marks the swing support; a break below would open $4,233 as the next technical floor. Volume has been concentrated around the mid-$4,300s, suggesting buyers remain present but not yet decisive. Our in-house signal engine reads Strong Sell, reflecting the post-Fed environment, though hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve limits gold's upside potential, while record ETF inflows, continued central-bank buying, and geopolitical risks continue to provide strong structural support.
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