Gold Tests $4,000 After CPI-Driven Selloff Lifts December Hike Odds

Gold traded near $4,036 on November 11, 2026 after plunging more than $100 as hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.00% and strengthened the dollar. The October CPI rose 0.4% and core CPI increased 0.3%, both above expectations. Spot gold fell $107.60 (–2.60%) to $4,031.80 during the session, and the probability of a 0.50 percentage point increase rose to 10.5% from 0% prior to the data release. Markets priced in a 100% chance of a December Fed rate hike, extinguishing what remained of the pause scenario and lifting real yields sharply. The dollar-yield combination hits non-interest-bearing gold from two directions: higher opportunity cost and a stronger greenback that makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers.

The backdrop has turned. Bullion gained nearly 2% on Monday as oil prices plunged amid growing optimism over a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran. Brent crude futures finished at $92.57, down sharply from the triple-digit levels that fuelled inflation fears through October. Cheaper energy should ease the headline CPI trajectory, but that relief arrived too late to prevent Tuesday's hot print from resetting rate expectations. At its October 28, 2026 meeting, the US Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00% per annum. The central bank's next meeting is scheduled for December 9, 2026.

Central bank demand remains a structural pillar. China's central bank added about 25.8 tonnes of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 months. Central banks and other official institutions bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, 42% more than a year earlier, the World Gold Council reported. That persistent accumulation has cushioned gold's decline; without it, the 27% retreat from January's highs near $5,405 might have been deeper.

What the calendar says

The main event will be the release of US CPI data on 10 November, followed by the PPI report on 13 November at the same time. Both reports cover October. That PPI print on Friday, November 13, will test whether pipeline inflation is moderating as oil rolls over or whether core pressures remain sticky enough to keep the Federal Reserve on a tightening path into year-end. Higher producer prices feed through to consumer prices with a lag, so a firm reading would reinforce the case for another rate increase at the December 9 meeting. The economic calendar carries no other tier-one releases between now and the PPI; the market will digest Tuesday's inflation shock, parse commentary from Federal Reserve officials, and position for Friday's data. There are no economic reports scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 11. Note that this is Veterans Day, and while the bond market will be closed, this is not a stock market holiday. Traders should expect thinner liquidity conditions to amplify moves on any headline risk.

You can track upcoming releases and their historical impact on /markets/gold or use our full schedule at /tools/economic-calendar.

Technical picture

The chart shows that the price action traces a broad consolidation between the $3,882 low struck on November 1 and resistance near $4,145 marked by a horizontal red line. That $4,062 level sits at the midpoint and has acted as a pivot throughout the period; gold is now consolidating around that zone after Tuesday's sharp selloff from the upper boundary.

The recovery from the $3,882 trough unfolded in a steep impulse, lifting price above $4,000 and briefly testing $4,145 on November 5. That ceiling has capped every rally attempt since, and the latest rejection sent gold tumbling back toward $4,020 before buyers stepped in. Support rests at $4,020–$4,025, where dip-buying absorbed the worst of Tuesday's selling pressure. A break below that cluster would reopen the $3,882 low and target the next psychological threshold at $3,800. On the upside, reclaiming $4,100 cleanly would ease immediate downside risk, while a close above $4,145 would challenge the $4,200 round figure and signal that the corrective phase from January's peak may be stabilising.

The chart reveals a market caught between the gravitational pull of rising real yields and the cushion of steady central bank demand. Until the December Fed decision either validates or tempers the current pricing, expect gold to remain range-bound, with each inflation release and Fed speaker amplifying intraday volatility around those established boundaries.